Monthly Summary
March 2018

Gold started the month at its lowest level of 2018 but rebounded to finish the month up 1.5% at $1,323.10. Silver, which showed volatility through the month ranging from $16.17-$16.76, only finished the month up 0.20% at 16.29. Platinum and palladium both had a very weak March, finishing down 3.6% and 3.0% respectively.

Gold’s performance this month was mainly determined by US – China relations which were already strained and only worsened as the month progressed. On March 1, Trump stated that the US would impose heavy tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. After backlash from the international community and some of his top advisors, Trump scaled back his broad tariffs to focus primarily on China. China threatened retaliation if any tariffs were imposed and the situation dissolved into a tit-for-tat sparring match between Presidents Trump and Xi. On March 22, Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese goods leading to the Dow falling 2.9% in a single trading session. Gold reached the mid-$1,350s range as stocks fell, its highest level of the month.

US economic data also affected gold, although a lot of its influence was overshadowed by the ongoing tension with China. February’s employment data showed a large increase in job creation but less than expected increase in corporate earnings. Consumer Price Index data showed a modest rise in prices and was in line with what was predicted.  The combination of significant job growth without a significant increase in spending and wages eased inflation fears and put pressure on gold. The Fed raised interest rates in their March meeting but scaled back the number of hikes they expect for the year.  The data helped give gold a boost since it pointed to a more dovish approach in the future.

 

 

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

April 25, 2018

Gold is down $10.80, trading at $1,319.70, as 10-year US treasury yields are maintaining slightly above the 3% mark.  Increasing yields continue to give the US dollar a boost, which is currently at its highest level since January. Stocks are feeling the pressure of rising yields as well, with major equity indices down across the board.

April 23, 2018

Gold is down today $13.70, currently trading at $1,322.10.  The drop comes as the US dollar is up 0.60% to its highest level in over two months, and US bond yields are also up significantly—with 10-year yields edging close to 3%, a level not seen since 2014.  Stocks remain relatively dormant today as most investors are eyeing increasing treasury yields and how they’ll likely influence equities in the coming weeks.

April 18, 2018

Gold and silver are trading at $1,353.20 and $17.14, an increase of 0.5% and 2.0% respectively.  Silver’s sharp jump puts the current silver to gold ratio at 78.95, its lowest level since February. Stock futures are also up this morning as Morgan Stanley becomes the latest financial powerhouse to post record profits thanks, in part, to the Trump administration’s tax cuts.

April 16, 2018

Gold is up $1.60, trading at $1,346.60 this morning, remaining relatively unchanged after the US and its allies launched targeted missile strikes against Syria this weekend. Stock futures are up today as most investors see these strikes against Syria as symbolic and don’t feel they will escalate into a serious confrontation between the US and Russia.

April 13, 2018

Gold is holding around the $1,340.00 range this morning after sharply falling yesterday to finish down $18.10.  Easing US-Russia tensions regarding Syria and JP Morgan posting record earnings are pushing stocks higher this morning while putting pressure on gold.

April 11, 2018

Gold is up this morning trading at 1,354.60 (+$12.20) as tensions rise between the US and Russia due to possible US strikes on Syria after President Assad again used chemical weapons against his own people. The gold spike and downtrend in equity futures comes after Russia vowed to shoot down any missiles aimed at Syria and President Trump tweeted that US-Russia relations are the worst they’ve ever been—including the cold war.

April 9, 2018

Gold remains steady in the $1,333 range this morning after getting a boost Friday amid tense US-China relations. President Trump scaled back his tone on the issue hinting that he believes the two countries could reach an amicable agreement which helped stocks open strongly this morning but is leaving precious metals in a state of limbo.

April 6, 2018

Gold is up $5.30, trading at $1,330 after dipping yesterday as stocks rallied with the Dow closing 700 points up from its session low.  Equity futures are down this morning across the board as President Trump threatened China with tariffs on an additional $100 billion in goods and China responded that they’d fight back at any cost.  March’s employment data was weaker than expected, with only 103,000 jobs being created, further adding to gold’s rise today.

April 4, 2018

Gold got a bump this morning and is trading at $1,346.40, up $13.30, as fears of a trade war escalated last night after President Trump announced tariffs on approximately $50 billion in Chinese imports.  China responded by announcing tariffs on over 100 US products ranging from soybeans to automobiles.  Equity markets are responding to the escalating situation with pre-market futures down significantly across three major indices. 

April 2, 2018

Trade war jitters reemerged as the Chinese responded to last week’s announcement by the US of new import tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum products.  In response, the Chinese are set to impose new tariffs up to 25% on 128 industry products made by US manufacturers.  The US equity markets fell sharply averaging more than -2.3% decline today across the major indices as well as the dollar(US).  Gold and Silver gained $16.80 (+1.27%) and $.342 (2.10%) respectively from their previous settlements on the news.

March 28, 2018

Gold dropped this morning to its 6-day low, currently down $8.50 at $1,333.60 as the dollar is showing signs of life thanks to an improving outlook between US and China. Equity markets were hit hard yesterday, with tech stocks taking the brunt of it in the aftermath of Facebook’s privacy breach.

March 26, 2018

Gold is down $1.40 trading at $1,348.60 this morning after gaining more than 3.1% last week. Gold is still up significantly this month but looks to be feeling pressure from equity markets this morning with Dow futures up 1.40% after the US and China announced talks to avoid reciprocal tariffs.

March 23, 2018

Gold is up $19.60, trading at $1,347.30 this morning, reaching its highest level in over a month. Metal prices initially jumped on Wednesday after the Fed raised interest rates, but stated they forecast a total of three rate hikes this year—less than the initial four predicted. Metals got a second boost yesterday as Trump said he would impose tariffs on $60 billion in Chinese imports, causing the Dow to drop more than 700 points amid fears of a trade war.

March 21, 2018

Gold is up $8.80, trading at $1,321.00 this morning as equity markets slipped yesterday,  causing a spike in investors buying precious metals.  Gold seems undaunted by the FOMC’s minutes due out this afternoon, where most expect interest rates to rise as Jerome Powell makes his Fed Chair debut.

March 19, 2018

Gold is down $.60 this morning trading at $1,311.40 as the dollar is holding firm ahead of this week’s Fed meeting where interest rates are expected to rise. Look for gold to continue under-performing this week and the dollar to gain some momentum ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.

March 16, 2018

Gold is trading at $1,315.60 this morning, down $1.90 after it dropped yesterday to its lowest level in over two weeks.  A continued decrease in inflation fears after yesterday’s PPI data and a resulting firmer US dollar put pressure on metals which has continued into today.

March 14, 2018

Gold is down $4.60 trading $1,322.00 this morning as yesterday’s CPI data eased worries about inflation and was in line with what was predicted. The dollar also slid yesterday as the data suggests the Fed can take a more gradual approach to raising interest rates.

March 12, 2018

Gold is down $5.10 trading at $1,318.40 this morning as Friday’s positive jobs report continues to put pressure on metals. Equity markets responded quite well to the report since it showed weaker than expected wage growth which could potentially lead to less emphasis on rate hikes by the Fed in the coming months.

March 09, 2018

Gold is down $4.20 trading at $1,316.50 this morning, its lowest level in over a week. Positive jobs data this morning and a subsequent bump in the Dollar put pressure on metals and may push prices lower; the US added 313,000 jobs in February beating expectations and earnings were also up—albeit, not as high of a wage increase as in January.

March 07, 2018

Gold is down $3.40 trading at $1,330.90 after reaching its one-week high yesterday as President Trump doubled down on his proposed tariffs which shook the US dollar and caused his top economic advisor, Gary Cohn, to resign. Even with the slight dip, gold is up 1.6% this week as fears of a trade war become more plausible with several countries threatening retaliation if these tariffs go into effect.

March 05, 2018

Gold slips slightly in midday trading from Friday’s strong advance as gains on the Dollar outweighed any carryover effects from Friday’s emerging trade war fears.  After gold for April delivery on COMEX closed on Friday at $1,323.40 (up $18.20 / +1.4%), a broader fear of global economic slowdown set the tone leading to a stronger US dollar.    Gold is currently trading at $1,321.50, down $1.90.

March 02, 2018

Gold is up $18.40, trading at $1,322.10 this morning after having a very poor week where it dropped close to the $1,300.00 threshold.  The dollar took a hit today after Trump hinted at future tariffs on steel and aluminum, with some fearing such actions could start a trade war. Equity markets were also shaken by his comments with Dow futures down over 1% prior to opening bell.

February 28, 2018

Gold is up $1.50 trading at $1,318.50 after a poor performance Tuesday where it dropped below $1,320.00 for the first time in over two weeks. The US Dollar reached a month-high yesterday putting pressure on metals as Jerome Powell expressed his confidence in the future of the US economy.

February 26, 2018

Gold is gaining some traction, up $4.30 trading at $1,332.60 after coming out of a slow week where conflicting views about inflation and subsequent interest rates kept gold relatively flat.  Look for more volatility later this week once we get a glimpse into what role the Fed will play under new leadership.

February 23, 2018

Gold has remained relatively stagnant since Wednesday’s Fed minutes were released hovering around $1,330.00.   The minutes suggested a continued gradual rise in interest rates; however, they don’t hold much significance since they were from January’s meeting and a lot has changed since then—primarily appointing a new Fed Chair and surprisingly positive employment data earlier this month. Traders should get good insight into what future Fed policy will be when Jerome Powell meets with congress next week. 

February 21, 2018

Gold is holding steady around the $1,330.00 mark this morning ahead of today’s Fed minutes release.  New Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, appears to be much more hawkish than his predecessor and will most likely propose several interest rate hikes to curb inflation as his primary goal this year. Expect gold to drop if this is the case.  

February 19, 2018

Gold is down $14.50 this morning trading at $1,339.30, as traders turn away from the immediate fear of inflation and focus on what that data means for a potential rate hike next month. Assuming the dollar doesn’t plummet, gold is set for a bearish run leading up to the March FOMC meeting.

February 16, 2018

Gold is up $3.40 this morning trading at $1,356.50, reaching its highest level in three weeks. Gold rose 2.6% since Wednesday when consumer price(CPI) index date showed inflation levels were on the rise.

February 14, 2018

Gold is down $4.00 trading at $1,324.20 after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released this morning showed consumer prices rising faster than expected. While gold is generally utilized as a hedge against rising prices, inflation is also indicative of future rate hikes which have traditionally curbed gold’s appeal to investors.

February 12, 2018

Gold is up $6.30 trading at $1,320.00 this morning after slipping much of last week due to a rising dollar. The Dow is also up this morning as equity markets and gold have behaved similarly these past few months in contrast to the strength of the dollar.

February 07, 2018

Gold is down $3.70 after a poor performance yesterday, currently trading at $1,322.90. The dollar has started to make positive gains, up about 1% this week, which has helped curb precious metals prices. 

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