Monthly Summary
December 2017

In December, gold prices rallied $31.00, or 2.43% up to $1,306.00.  For the quarter, prices gained a net $22.50 or 1.75%, and for the entirety of 2017, prices added $ 154.00, an increase of 13.37%.

December’s price chart is a tale of 2 markets. The month began with prices trading $1,275.00. Prices trended lower until the 12th, when prices traded the month’s low of $1,236.75.  A remarkably consistent rally through month end ensued from there, with prices closing higher in the next 11 of 13 trading sessions. Gold prices hit their month’s high of $1.307.50 on the 29th, 2017’s last trading day.

The first part of the month was dominated by strong equity market performances amid expectations for the passage of the Trump tax reform bill and the presumption that the Fed would raise interest rates; the US dollar rallied against this backdrop and gold prices fell.  Speculative traders liquidated Comex long gold futures positions during the week ending the 12th by a huge 76.2K, for a drop of two-thirds of their net long position.

On the 12th, the downtrend in gold prices reversed just ahead of the Fed hike that day.  Positive sentiment for gold prices dominated for the rest of the month despite firm equity prices.  The Bloomberg US Dollar Index began a steady decline on the 15th, re-engaging the dollar’s broad downtrend in 2017 that had been based on the expectation of tightening in the Eurozone in 2018.  Speculative traders net bought 31.5K lots of Comex gold futures in the 2 weeks ending December 26.  In other metal markets in December, silver prices rose 3.04%.  Platinum prices fell 1.56% as palladium prices traded 17-year highs to gain 5.25%. Copper prices added 7.17%.

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

January 19, 2018

Gold is up $7.30 this morning trading at $1,334.00 after dipping Thursday to its lowest level in over a week. A potential government shutdown coupled with current geo-political tensions in Asia and the Middle East paint a positive outlook for gold, at least for the near future.  

 

January 17, 2018

Gold jumped to its highest level last night since early September, topping $1,341.00 before returning to the $1,335.00 range this morning.  Gold is up 2.2% this year as the dollar continues to under-perform and the demand for gold is up across the globe.

January 16, 2018

Gold jumped 1% on Friday to close at $1,334.40, its highest in over four months, and has been trading steadily in the $1,334.50 range this morning. The dollar continues to struggle, reaching its 3-year low against the euro yesterday, further supporting a positive outlook for precious metals.

January 10, 2018

Gold is trading at $1,320.00 this morning up $7.30, posting gains in 9 of its last 10 trading sessions. The dollar’s steady decline over the past month and strengthening industrial and retail demand for gold could help boost it further in the coming weeks.

January 08, 2018

Gold dropped overnight to $1,316.00,  but has since rebounded to it’s previous day $1,320.00 range.  Gold and silver are up about 0.50% and 0.80% respectively this year through the first week.  

 

January 05, 2018

Gold dipped slightly this morning ahead of today’s jobs report, but bounced back to trading around $1,320.00 after a lackluster month for job growth; 148,000 jobs were created during December, falling short of expectations.

January 03, 2018

Gold begins the new year strong; trading at $1,315.00 up $2.40 today and up more than 5.5% since its mid-December slump.  The dollar dropped Tuesday for the fifth straight trading session to its lowest since September, further bolstering precious metals prices.

December 29, 2017

As the US Dollar remains weak, gold prices are up again this morning, trading $1,297.00/oz.   With this morning’s $2.00 rally, prices are currently up $22.00 (1.7%) for the month and up $145.00 (12.6%) for the year.  GLD holdings have fallen 66K oz. in December.  Happy New Year!

December 27, 2017

Gold prices are trading $1,284.00/oz. this morning, up $1.00 and up for the 9th of the last 11 trading days as the rebound from the December 12th low of $1,236.75 continues. Gold prices are up 3.8% since then and silver prices, 5.5%. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index is modestly lower today, continuing its down-trend started mid-month.

December 22, 2017

Gold prices stand at $1,269.00, up $2.50 this morning, higher for the third day in a row and for the seventh of the last nine trading days.  The dollar is modestly higher.  CME crude oil prices are up 1.10% this week.  The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields has widened 10 basis points since the 15th.  Happy Holidays!

December 20, 2017

Gold prices are trading $1,266.00/oz. this morning, up $4.00.  Prices are about $30.00 higher than the recent 5-month low seen on the 12th.  During the same period the dollar has weakened, US 10-year Treasuries yields are up 6 basis points and the S&P 500 has moved higher.  GLD AUM fell 38K yesterday.  Congress is expected to complete voting on passing the tax bill today.  

December 18, 2017

This morning gold prices are trading $1,259.00/oz., up $3.00.  In the week ending December 12, managed money traders cut their Comex gold futures long position sharply for a second week to 76.2K contracts, a drop of nearly two-thirds and a 5 month low.  International equities are higher, following the US stock market’s performance Friday. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index is slightly lower.

December 15, 2017

Gold prices are trading $1,258.00 this morning, up $4.00 on the day and over $20.00 from the week’s low that occurred Wednesday,  before the Fed raised rates.  The Bloomberg US dollar index is down modestly.  The global markets await news from Washington on the final version of the tax bill today.

December 13, 2017

This morning, gold prices are trading $1,241.00, down $3.00.  Yesterday dipped to $1,236.75 as the US Dollar index continued its upward trajectory this month.  GLD assets have grown 104K thus far in December.  The Fed concludes its 2-day meeting this afternoon and is widely expected to hike interest rates.

December 11, 2017

Gold prices are trading $1,250.00/oz. this morning, up $1.00.  The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates on Wednesday.  Thursday,  the ECB, Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank are not expected to move on policy.  Managed money long positions fell by 1/3 in Comex gold futures in the week ending December 5.

December 08, 2017

Gold prices are trading unchanged at $1,247.50 this morning, a 5-month low.  Yesterday,  prices fell $16.00.  This week,  prices are down $35.00.  The Bloomberg US Dollar Index has marched steadily higher this week.  The market expects the Fed to raise interest rates next week.  Unemployment data comes out this morning:  non-farm payrolls are predicted at 195K.

December 06, 2017

Gold prices are trading unchanged at $1,266.00/oz. this morning.  Yesterday, prices dipped to a 2 month low of $1,261.00 as copper prices fell sharply.  Next week, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates.  This Friday, the debt ceiling expires, meaning there could be a partial government shutdown unless Washington hammers out a new, likely temporary, budget accord. Also on Friday,  US unemployment data is released.  Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 195K.

December 4, 2017

Gold prices are trading $1,273.50/oz., down $7.00.  Friday, following Michael Flynn’ guilty plea, gold prices jumped $1,289.50 before retracing as the odds increased that the tax bill would clear the Senate (which it did late Friday night).  The Managed Money (hedge funds, speculators) net long Comex gold futures position expanded to 198K as of November 28, as large as it has been since October 2016.

December 01, 2017

Gold prices were down $3.00 this morning, trading $1,273.00/oz., after falling $20 over Tuesday and Wednesday against a backdrop of record US equity prices,  buoyed by tax reform hopes and positive economic data.  American Eagle gold coin sales were off 92% in November from a year ago.  Later,  Friday prices rallied to $1,285.00.  Former national security advisor Michael Flynn plead guilty to lying to federal agents and said Trump’s team directed talks with the Russian envoy.

November 29, 2017

This morning gold prices are unchanged at $1,294.00/oz.  Yesterday,  GLD holdings fell 85K to just under 27 million oz., the lowest level since September 15 (when gold was trading $1,253.00) as the S&P 500 made another record high and the dollar showed strength. Yesterday,  copper prices fell on Chinese demand concerns and palladium prices rallied to over $1,000.00.

November 27, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,295.00/oz. this morning, up $6.00. Prices are up 1.8% this month while the Bloomberg US Dollar Index is down the same percentage. Chinese equities continued their move lower following Thursday’s plunge. Fed Chair nominee Powell’s confirmation hearing starts Tuesday and outgoing Yellen testifies Wednesday; other Fed officials also speak this week.

November 24, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,287.00/oz. this morning, down $4.00. Wednesday, gold prices traded as high as $1,292.25 and Thursday a dollar higher than that against the backdrop of a weaker US Dollar. Federal Reserve meeting minutes released Wednesday indicated many committee members were concerned about low inflation.

November 22, 2017
After yesterday’s selloff, which gave away last week’s gains, this morning gold prices are trading $1,287, up $5.00. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index is down for a second day. October Swiss export figures indicate demand in China is rising. Yesterday Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen indicated there’s been “some hint” that inflation expectations could be shifting downward.

November 20, 2017
After trading to a one-month high of $1,296.25 and closing $16.00 higher on the day Friday, gold prices this morning have retraced to $1,292.00, down $0.50 thus far on the day. There is political uncertainty in Washington over Trump’s tax bill and in Germany due to Merkel’s failure to form a coalition government.

November 13, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,279.00 this morning, up $3.50. On Friday, in a burst of volume equivalent to 4 million oz., gold prices traded down in an over $10 range in approximately 10 minutes during the half-hour starting at 11am ET. Prices recovered modestly to close the week at $1,275.50, for a weekly gain of just over $7.00.

November 10, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,285.00/oz. this morning, unchanged on the day. Prices are up $17.00 from last Friday’s close. Some analysts see progress on US tax reform as more uncertain. The dollar is lower today and 10-year Treasury yields are up 2 basis points. Oil prices look to be heading for another weekly rally, the 5th in a row.

November 08, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,281.00/oz. this morning, up $6.00 despite recent strength in the US dollar. China’s gold reserves were unchanged in October. The largest gold producer as well as the largest consumer, China’s gold production fell nearly 10% in the first half of 2017 according to the GFMS World Gold Survey.

November 06, 2017
This morning, gold prices are trading $1,272.00/oz., up $2.00. Over the last 3 weeks, gold prices have fallen nearly $36.00, or 2.7%, while the Bloomberg US Dollar Index has rallied 1.99%. The 100-day moving average is approx. $1,276.20 and the 200-day $1,261.90. The US unemployment rate in October, released Friday, was 4.1% for a 17-year low.

November 03, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,275.50/oz. this morning, down $0.50. Yesterday, Powell was picked to be the new Fed chief. Yesterday, Gold prices traded as high as $1,284.00 in a day when GLD holdings fell 114K. Non-farm payrolls (8:30am ET) are expected to jump by 313K following the hurricane; the rate itself is expected unchanged at 4.2%.

November 1, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,279.00/oz. this morning, up $8.00 and above the 100-day moving average (approx. $1,275.70). The Fed is not expected to move today, but the market will parse the 2:00pm ET statement for indications of a hike in December. China’s gold consumption is up 15.49% in Q1-Q3. Nickel prices rallied over 5% yesterday.

October 30, 2017
This morning gold prices are trading $1,272.50, down $1.00 on the day but $9.00 above Friday’s low. Catalonia declared independence from Spain Friday. The Fed meets Wednesday while Japan’s central bank starts a 2-day meeting tomorrow. Unemployment comes out Friday. Managed Money traders cut their net gold futures long for a 6th week, but by less than 1%.

October 27, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,265.00 this morning, down $1.00 and a 3-week low. The dollar is trading at a 3-month high against the euro. Today the ECB indicated it will continue its bond buying program but at a reduced pace, in contrast to the Fed, who the market believes will tighten this year.

October 25, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,273.50/oz., down $3.00 against the backdrop of a strong dollar, a record close in the Dow and higher US 10-Year Treasuries, which are yielding over 2.40% for the first time since May. President Trump is considering whether to replace Fed Chair Janet Yellen with someone more hawkish; he should announce his decision by early November.

October 23, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,276.00/oz. this morning, off $4.00 from Friday and following a decline of $24.00 last week. Prices are very close to the 100-day moving average (approx. $1,275.80). The US dollar is firm against the Yen following elections in Japan. The Managed Money net long Comex gold futures position has fallen 33.1% in the 5 weeks ending October 17.

October 20, 2017
Gold prices are $10.00 lower this morning, trading $1,281.00. On the week, prices are $23.00 lower but are up $4.00 from 2 Fridays ago. The US dollar is stronger; yesterday the Senate took a step toward tax reform that would result in $1.5 trillion in cuts. The S&P 500 settled at a record high.

October 18, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,280.00 this morning, down $5.00, after losing $9.00 on Monday and another $10.00 on Tuesday. The 100-day moving average stands below at approximately $1,275.40. A Reuters poll of some economists indicates hawk Jerome Powell could be Trump’s appointment to Chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen.

October 16, 2017
Gold prices are sitting above $1,300.00/oz. this morning, trading $1,305.00, up $2.00 on the day. Geopolitical concerns over Iran and North Korea are in the headlines. Speculative traders cut their net long Comex gold futures position for a 4th week in the week ending October 10. The US dollar index is modestly higher.

October 13, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,294.00 this morning, down $1.00 but up $18.00 from last Friday. Wednesday afternoon Fed minutes suggest a third interest rate hike is planned for 2017 but that the US central bankers are concerned about low inflation. Reports indicate the European Central Bank plans to reduce their bond buying pace by half or more next year.

October 11, 2017
This morning gold prices are trading $1,291.00/oz., up $1.00 on the day as the rally from the recent low on October 5th ($1,261.00) continues while the Bloomberg US Dollar Index, currently trading 93.084, continues to trend down from the recent high on the 5th (93.961). Catalonia’s leader avoided declaring independence from Spain.

October 09, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,283.00 this morning, up $6.00 from Friday’s close and up $22.00 from Friday’s low of $1,261.00. There is concern North Korea will test another missile. Friday, September non-farm payrolls fell 33K vs. an expected increase of 80K, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. Chinese traders are back from a week off.

October 06, 2017
Gold prices are trading $1,268.50 this morning. Consensus for today’s US non-farm payrolls report is 80K. The 100-day moving average stands at $1,273.00 and the 200-day at $1,252.00. Dollar strength continues. The S&P 500 closed at record highs yesterday for a 6th day running.

October 4, 2017
Following yesterday’s decline to $1,268.00, a level not seen since mid-August, gold prices are higher this morning, trading $1,276.00 and up $4.00 on the day. The 100-day moving average currently stands near $1,272.75. GLD holdings rose 1.55 million oz. in September; in 2 days trading in October holdings have fallen 332K oz.

October 2, 2017
Early this morning, Gold prices stand at $1,273.00, down $7.00 from Friday and off $84.00 from the year’s high of $1,357.00 achieved on September 8. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index is higher this morning, continuing a rally that commenced around the same date. Ten-year US Treasuries are yielding 2.35%, up 2 basis points on the day and over 30 basis points since September 7.

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