Monthly Summary

March 2019

Gold performed well for most of March, spending much of the month above the $1,300 threshold, but finished relatively flat.  Silver followed a similar trajectory and finished down only 0.80%.  Palladium reached a record high of $1,620 but plunged after that to finish the month down 10.6% and platinum ended the month down 1.8%.

Gold began the month by dropping $20.00 to a 5-week low of $1,285 due to renewed progress in US-China trade negotiations and a 1.5% gain in the US dollar.  However, any progress towards a trade deal soon vanished as neither President Trump or President Xi seemed too eager to discuss a resolution to the tariffs, and by March 15 gold was trading above $1,300 again.

A second boost came the third week in March when the US bond yield became inverted, with short term bonds having greater yields than long term bonds. This is usually seen as a precursor to a recession. Stocks plummeted as a result and gold rose to $1,320, its highest level in over a month.

Gold continued to perform well until March 27th when strong earnings led to a surge in equities and a sharp increase in the US dollar.  Gold fell 1.6% on March 28th, and finished the month flat at $1,291.50.

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

April 22, 2019

Gold rose significantly in overnight trading on threats of new global financial tensions after the US said it will end sanction exemptions for all countries that import Iranian oil.  Brent Crude is currently up over 3% even with assurances from the Saudis and other oil producing countries that supply would not be affected.  Gold has since retreated but is still up midday, currently trading at $1,274.00.

April 17, 2019
Gold is trading at $1,273.10, its lowest level of 2019, after a report put out by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasting record level gold production in 2019, caused the price to plunge. Without adequate demand, the predicted increase in production will cause gold prices to fall as seen yesterday. Silver remained relatively flat as gold fell, dropping the gold to silver ratio to 85.

April 15, 2019
Gold is down $2.90, trading at $1,288.90 today as banks continue to post positive earnings with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs beating estimates today. Better earnings bode well for economic growth in the US and lessen the appeal of safe-haven investments such as gold and silver.

April 12, 2019
Gold is currently up $1.30, trading at $1,290.80, after falling over 1.6% yesterday—its largest single day drop of the month. Gold plunged after jobless claims data showed US citizens filing for unemployment benefits, fell to its lowest level since 1969. Stocks are up today led by positive bank earnings with J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and PNC beating estimates.

April 10, 2019
Gold is hovering just above $1,300.00 after rising earlier this week, as the US dollar slipped Tuesday. Equity futures remain relatively flat as investors look to key economic data due out Wednesday to give markets guidance. The European Central Bank is set to release its policy decision. FOMC minutes from the Fed’s March meeting will be released, and US consumer price index data will give insight into any inflation concerns. Look for market volatility to increase as investors analyze this slew of important financial data.

April 08, 2019
Gold is up slightly to begin the week, currently hovering around $1,293.00, after dipping Friday due to better than expected employment data. 196,000 jobs were created in March, beating estimates and strengthening confidence in the US economy after February’s lackluster job growth. Gold’s modest rise comes as the US dollar seems to have plateaued after rebounding late last week.

April 3, 2019
Gold declines slightly but holds its range bound level just below $1,300/oz. This is the 4th day in a row as the markets look for some direction. It appears that perhaps Friday’s release of non-farm payroll and unemployment data will be the day we see the markets make a significant move. Forecasts suggest 179,000 jobs created in March with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.8%.

April 2, 2019
Precious metals group remains relatively unchanged today following a bearish week. Hovering just below the resistance level of $1,300/oz., Gold found little help from today’s weakening US Dollar or lower than expected retail sales data. All eyes on this week’s array of economic data releases including Friday’s payroll and unemployment data. Following last month’s disappointing payroll numbers, the metals group may find upside direction should another lower than expected jobs report be released.

March 29, 2019
Gold plunged yesterday as the US dollar soared to a 3-week high after the Fed pushed back against those advocating for a rate cut in 2019, saying it is too early to consider slashing interest rates. The dollar has since retreated from yesterday’s high and is currently down 0.10%, leading to a boost in gold which is up $5.40 this morning.

March 27, 2019
Gold is down $4.90, trading at its lowest point for the week at $1310.50, as the US dollar gained some momentum and is currently at its highest level since March 12. Dovish statements from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank paralleled those made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and are cause for global growth concerns that could help gold rise in the near future.

March 25, 2019
Gold is trading at $1,320.00 this morning, reaching its highest level in nearly a month as the US bond yield curve became inverted Friday, for the first time since 2007. Typically, long-term bonds have greater yields than short-term ones; when short-term yields become higher, the curve is inverted, which is an indicator of a coming recession. Stocks opened in the red again today after Friday’s steep sell-off as the US bond market and global growth concerns continue to rattle Wall Street.

March 22, 2019
Gold is currently trading at $1,313.10, up $5.70 today, as the Fed left interest rates unchanged and anticipates no rate hikes for the remainder of 2019 based on slowed economic growth. Gold is facing some downward pressure from the US dollar, which rallied today after its 7-week low on Wednesday when the Fed’s dovish outlook was released.

March 20, 2019
Gold is currently down $1.20 this morning, hovering around $1,305.00 as markets await insight into the Fed’s policy for the remainder of 2019. Equity markets are down slightly ahead of today’s release of the FOMC minutes and press conference by Jerome Powell; but depending on how dovish the Fed’s tone is, stocks could get a boost later in the trading session.

March 18, 2019
Gold remains relatively flat this morning, currently up $1.40 trading at $1,304.10 as investors await the outcome of this week’s Fed meeting ending Wednesday. Rates are widely expected to remain unchanged, but the Fed’s tone regarding future hikes in 2019 will be the catalyst that we get markets moving later in the week. Equity markets are also flat today ahead of Wednesday’s FOCM minutes.

March 15, 2019

Gold bounced back above the $1,300.00 threshold today as the US dollar dropped to its lowest level in nearly two weeks.  Growing trade concerns with China helped push metals prices up after both Presidents Trump and Xi do not seem too eager to meet and work on a comprehensive trade deal. Equities remain relatively flat this morning as investors weigh global growth concerns after continued delays in a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies.  

March 13, 2019

Gold and silver are up $9.90 and $0.07 respectively this morning after wholesale spending data released yesterday,  showed prices increased in February after remaining flat in January.  UK’s parliament rejected Theresa May’s most recent Brexit plan, further stirring up uncertainty with the March 29 deadline drawing closer.  US stocks are also rising with the Dow currently up about 200 points for the day.

March 11, 2019

Gold is down today, currently trading at $1,290.50, as positive retail sales data released this morning, showed stronger than expected consumer spending in January.  The data has equity markets up this morning and the US dollar remaining relatively flat.  The US and China are making progress in trade talks after China said it won’t devalue its currency to help boost exports.

March 08, 2019

Gold and silver both rose sharply this morning after February’s jobs report showed much weaker than expected growth.  Only 20,000 jobs were created (vs. 180,000 expected) which makes February the worst month for job creation since September 2017.  Gold and silver are up $10.00 and $0.25, respectively, while stocks are tumbling over the news with the Dow currently down over 200 points.

March 06, 2019

Gold is up $2.50 today, currently trading at $1,285.00, as the US dollar slowed down after rising 1.5% last week.  China also revised its 2019 economic growth estimates downward, meaning less Chinese demand for gold.  Stocks are down across this board this afternoon on global economic growth concerns.

March 04, 2019

Gold opened down $5.00 (-.38%), well below the $1,300.00 resistance level on the news of progress with the ongoing trade talks between the US and China.   Anticipation of resolution between the two economic powers increases the appetite for riskier assets and away from the safety of bullion.  Gold is currently trading down $10.70 (-.82%) at $1,288.50.

March 01, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,308.60 this morning, down $5.10 to its lowest price in over 2 weeks.  Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data released today,  showed an increase of 1.9% in expenditures for 2018, just shy of the 2% Fed target.  Personal income fell for the first time in 3 years.  US equity markets are up this morning as a trade deal between the US and China looks likelier than it has in weeks. 

February 25, 2019

Gold is down $2.40, currently trading at $1,327.50, after President Trump stated this weekend that he’d be willing to extend the March tariff deadline with China due to progress regarding trade negotiations.  US equity markets responded positively to the news and are up this afternoon. Palladium continues to surge to new records amid increased demand and fears of reduced production out of South Africa.

February 13, 2019

Gold is down $5.10 today after Consumer Price Index data released this morning, showed prices were unchanged in January, decreasing any inflationary concerns that may have been brewing.  Gold initially responded well to the news as unchanged CPI data strengthened the case for zero rate hikes in 2019, but ultimately, was out-performed by the US dollar and equities today.

February 11, 2019

Gold is down $6.20 today to its lowest level in a week after the US dollar surged to a 7-week high.  Another potential government shutdown, which is looking more than likely as neither side on Capital Hill seems willing to compromise, does not seem to be having much effect on the dollar, as it did in January.  Stocks remain relatively flat today as investors await the outcome of this shutdown as well as US-China trade data. 

 

February 08, 2019

Gold is up $3.80, currently trading at $1,314.00, as trade tensions with China rose yesterday.  Presidents Trump and Xi said a meeting with each other was unlikely prior to the March tariff deadline.  US stocks are down on the news, with the Dow finishing down nearly 300 points yesterday and currently down 260 points today.

February 6, 2019

Gold is down $2.40, currently trading at $1,312.80, as the US dollar rose this morning to its highest level in 2-weeks. Stocks began the day in the red after President Trump’s SOTU speech last night where he emphasized the current tension with China but have rebounded slightly heading into the afternoon. 

February 04, 2019

Gold retreated for the first time after 6 consecutive sessions of gains after stronger than expected economic data helped boost the dollar.  Gold settles down $5.80 to close at $1,316.30.

January 30, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,310.50, up slightly ahead to today’s FOMC meeting where Jerome Powell will provide insight into the Fed’s policy for the year after curtailing its hawkish stance in December.  Silver is up $0.12 this morning, closing in on the $16.00 benchmark which it hasn’t hit since July. Equities are also up across the board after the US Government reopened earlier this week.

January 28, 2019

Gold is up $3.30, currently trading at $1,302.30, after breaking the $1,300.00 barrier for the first time since this summer on Friday.  The rise comes ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting this week where interest rates are expected to remain the same, giving a boost to non-interest yielding assets such as precious metals.

January 25, 2019

Gold is up $18.40, currently trading at $1,299.00, skyrocketing to its highest level since June.  The rise comes as the on-going government shutdown and increasing trade tensions with China finally took their toll on the US dollar, which is down 0.70% today to its lowest level in nearly 2 weeks.  Stocks are up across the board as well, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all up around 1% this morning.

January 23, 2019

Gold and silver are currently up $1.00 and $.04 respectively, trading at $1,284.80 and $15.35.  The modest rise comes after the US dollar retreated 0.25% this morning after firming up the past few weeks to begin the new year.  Stocks remain relatively flat today, still processing the ongoing government shutdown and mixed earnings results.

January 18, 2019

Gold is down $11.40, currently trading at $1281, its lowest level in over two weeks as the US dollar soared to its highest level in a month amid positive sentiment regarding US-China trade relations. China announced it may increase US exports to decrease the current trade imbalance. Stocks are also up since this news was released. 

January 16, 2019

Gold has remained steady in the $1,293.00 range and is currently up $4.60 for the day as the US dollar and stocks remain relatively flat today.  Gold didn’t fluctuate much after yesterday’s UK Parliament vote that squashed the Brexit deal and mixed bank earnings results this week, have kept the metals market relatively calm.

January 14, 2019

Gold is up $2.20, trading at $1,290.80, as stocks are down today ahead of a big week for earnings after a turbulent fourth quarter.  China trade data released today showed Chinese exports were down in 2018, primarily to the US.  This data gives credence to the impact of the US-China trade war on the global economy and could potentially boost gold in the near future.

January 11, 2019

Gold is up $3.00, trading at $1,289.50 this morning, as the US dollar remains flat and is on course for a 0.60% weekly loss as the Fed reiterated flexibility and patience regarding interest rates in 2019 yesterday afternoon. Stocks are currently down this morning jeopardizing their best run since October, of four straight days of gains.

January 09, 2019

Gold is up $3.90 this morning, currently trading at $1,288.60, as the US dollar declines to its lowest level in a nearly a month.  The drop comes ahead of the release of December’s FOMC minutes this afternoon, which some believe will parallel Jerome Powell’s dovish tone over the past few weeks.  Stocks are up modestly this morning in anticipation of the Fed’s minutes.

January 07, 2019

Gold is up $8.00 this morning, currently trading at $1,292.00, as the US dollar continues its downtrend from Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is flexible and willing to change its initial assessment of two rate hikes in 2019.  Stocks also soared Friday after strong jobs date and Powell’s comments, but look to be trading relatively flat this morning.

January 04, 2019

Gold is down significantly this morning after today’s employment report showed an unexpected surge in job growth for December.  312,000 jobs were added in December, persuasively beating estimates of 180,000, which caused the US dollar and stocks to soar this morning while precious metals dropped. Gold is currently down $13.30, trading at $1,279.20.

January 02, 2019

Precious metals are trading up today as the haven seekers reminiscent from last week are moving to the safety of gold.  The first day of trading in the new year was very much the same as the last few trading days of 2018.  Weak US dollar and even weaker equity markets have propelled gold up .50% today with $1,290 price level in sight. 

December 31, 2018

Gold remained mostly unchanged during the final trading hours of 2018.  Looking to post its first annual loss in three years, gold’s recent momentum was halted today on the news of a possible agreement between the US and China on trade issues. With less risk adverse market participants and lighter than average trading, equities appear to be capturing the most interest.

December 28, 2018

Hovering around a 1.7% gain for the week, Gold continues to benefit from a weakened US dollar and volatile equity markets.  Silver and palladium are also posting gains for the week.  Trading at 5-month highs, silver is enjoying the best week since July 2016.  Palladium is up 3%.

December 26, 2018

Gold continues to hover near six-month highs today as equities pull back from yesterday’s historic gain.  After breaking its 200-day moving average last week, gold moved to new levels as profit takers and risk avoiders are once again looking towards gold as a safe haven.  European demand for gold spiked this week as Brexit turmoil is at the forefront.  Gold ETF’s also report another monthly increase in holdings reaching its highest level since August.

December 21, 2018

Gold spiked after the Fed’s decision to increase interest rates and plan two additional rate hikes for 2019 on Wednesday.  It has since dropped but is still trading higher than before the FOMC meeting, currently at $1,258.60. Equities plunged after the news of two more rate hikes in 2019, with the Dow falling over 450 points on Thursday and the Nasdaq teetering around bear market territory for the first time since the 2008.

December 19, 2018

Gold is currently trading at $1,255.80, reaching its highest level since mid-July; and silver is trading at $14.81, its highest price since late August.  The rise comes ahead of today’s Fed decision on raising interest rates.  Rates are expected to rise, but the frequency of future rate hikes is likely to decrease. Today’s FOMC minutes should provide insight into their approach going forward and markets are more likely to be influenced by the Fed’s outlook for 2019 than today’s expected rate increase.

December 17, 2018

Gold is up $3.30, hovering right around $1,240.00 this morning after rebounding from Friday’s steep drop.  Gold’s bump comes as the US dollar slowed down after last week’s surge and is down 0.30% for the day. U.S. stock futures are down, looking like they’ll continue their slump after Friday’s sell-off.

December 14, 2018

Gold is down $6.00 today to its lowest price in over a week, currently trading at $1,236.80.  Silver took a larger hit, currently down over 1.4% since yesterday. The drop comes as the US dollar rebounded from its recent decline to reach its highest price YTD this morning.  Stock futures are down across the board primarily due to new data suggesting China’s economy is still slowing sparking global growth concerns.

December 12, 2018

Gold is trading at $1,241.40, currently down $2.90, as the US dollar is up 0.30% ahead of next week’s Fed meeting,  where interest rates are still expected to rise. Silver is down $0.02 this morning but is still trading at its highest level in nearly 6 weeks.  Stocks begin the day in the green continuing yesterday’s strong performance.

December 10, 2018

Gold is down $0.70 this morning, holding around $1,246.00, still up 1.4% for the week.  The US dollar is up 0.50% today after its poor performance last week due to a poor jobs report and falling treasury yields.  Equities continue to get slammed with the Dow down nearly 500 points so far this morning.

 

December 07, 2018

Gold and silver are both up substantially, trading at $1,245.00 and $14.61 respectively.  Gold reached its highest price since mid-July and silver its highest in over a month.  The rise comes as November’s employment data showed only 155,000 jobs were created last month, falling short of expectations.

December 05, 2018

Gold is down $3.50 this morning, trading at $1,237.70, after peaking yesterday at its highest price since July.  Plunging stocks drove metals prices up amid fears that a positive trade agreement with China may not be possible in the near futures.  U.S. equity markets are closed today to mourn the passing of President George HW Bush.

December 03, 2018

Gold is currently up $11.70, trading at $1,232.10, which is its highest level in nearly a month.  Silver is up $0.37 at $14.51, its strongest price in nearly two weeks.  The climb comes after the US and China agreed to a truce, easing trade tensions and sending the US dollar lower.  Stocks rallied after the news, with the Dow up over 300 points this morning.

November 30, 2018

Jerome’s Powell’s comments regarding target interest rates earlier this week,  seemed to have a short-term effect on precious metals with prices down across the board.  Gold is currently trading at $1,217.60, down $7.20, and silver is performing worse, down nearly 2% for the day.  Stocks, which rallied after the news, retreated slightly and are trading relatively flat this morning.

November 28, 2018

Gold began the day down but wiped away this week’s losses after Jerome Powell hinted that interest rate hikes will be slowing down in the future. Gold is currently up $10.20, trading at $1,223.40.  Stocks also spiked, with the Dow gaining 400 points today, most of which were after Powell’s dovish toned speech.

November 26, 2018

Gold and silver remain relatively flat, currently down $0.80 and $.04 respectively, as stocks are up across the board.  The rise, however, was not unexpected after stocks had their worst Thanksgiving week in decades.  The US dollar remains unchanged today, further alleviating downward pressure put on gold, even with equities rising.

November 21, 2018

Gold and silver are up $4.80 and $0.18 respectively this morning after stocks plunged yesterday to erase 2018’s gains.  The dollar is down this morning perhaps because this most recent decline in equities may slowdown future rate hikes, which has benefited precious metals so far today. 

 

November 19, 2018

Gold is up $1.30, currently trading at $1,224.00, as the US dollar continues to retreat from its 16-month high reached earlier in November.  US equities begin the shortened trading week down, led primarily by continuing trade tensions between the US and China and disappointing home builder confidence which dipped to a 2-year low.

November 16, 2018

Gold is up $7.20 this morning at $1,221.90, rebounding after dipping below $1,200.00 earlier this week.  The rise comes as the US dollar is down 0.60% this morning after Fed Vice Chairman Clarida struck a more dovish tone regarding the Fed’s benchmark rates than he or other members had in the past.  Palladium reached a new record high today above $1,170.00 as supply concerns caused an influx in trading volume this week.

November 12, 2018

Gold is down 0.35% and silver 0.95% this morning, dipping to their lowest levels in over a month. The drop comes as the US dollar is up 0.50% today, reaching its highest level since July, 2017 amid the likelihood of rising interest rates next month. Stocks are feeling the effects of the burgeoning dollar as well, with the Dow and Nasdaq currently down 1.3% and 2.5% respectively.

November 09, 2018

Gold and silver are both down this morning to their lowest levels in over 3 weeks, currently trading at $1,210.40 and $14.17 respectively.  The decline comes as the US dollar gained momentum after the Fed’s announcement to remain aggressive regarding future interest rate hikes.  Stocks are down following the news as well, but the Fed pointed to employment and inflation data as primary arguments for increasing interest rates in the coming months.

November 07, 2018

Gold is up $4.30, currently trading at $1,228.80, as the mid-term elections seemed to have a limited effect on markets since they played out as most had predicted they would.  Democrats gained control of the House while Republicans retained control of the Senate.  Equity futures are responding well to elections, with pre-market futures up across the board.

November 05, 2018

Gold is up $0.60, trading at $1,232.10, as the dollar remains unchanged after dropping last week.  Equity markets are relatively quiet as well, ahead of tomorrow’s mid-terms.  The elections results will likely increase volatility across several major markers, but for now investors remain sidelined. 

November 02, 2018

Gold is down $5.30, but holding steady above the $1,230.00 threshold, as the US dollar continues to cool off after reaching its 16-month high earlier this week.   Jobs data reported this morning shows the US added 250,000 new jobs in October, beating the predicted total of 200,000 jobs quite decisively, and wage growth hit its highest level in nearly a decade.

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