Monthly Summary

March 2021

Precious metals stalled in March as rising Treasury yields muted their appeal as an alternative investment to equities.  Gold dipped 0.7% to finish the month around $1,715 and had its worst quarter since 2016, falling over 14% since December 31.  Silver fell 7.1% to finish near $24.50 and fell 6.9% in Q1.  PGMs once again outperformed gold and silver with platinum and palladium rising 0.6% and 13.7% respectively in March.

Rising Treasury yields dominated market news in March, and gold and silver were hit hard by the rise.  The 10-year T yield peaked at 1.77% on Tuesday, March 30, its highest level in 14 months.  The same day, gold dipped to $1,680, its lowest price since June.  Yields seems to have stabilized heading into April which bodes well for gold and silver in the coming months.  Gold jumped 2% in the last day of March as yields declined to finish back above the $1,700 threshold.

Equities performed well in March, however, there was a shift from growth stocks to value stocks which was seen in an underperforming Nasdaq and a surging Dow.  For the month, the Dow gained 6.6% and rose 7.8% for the quarter.  The S&P closed the month up 4.3% and Q1 up 5.8%. The Nasdaq suffered most as rising yields enticed investors away from growth stocks.  But still, in March, the Nasdaq eked out a win, rising 0.4% and gained 2.8% in Q1.

Many saw this dip in gold and silver as an excellent buying opportunity which only exacerbated ongoing supply issues as State Mints and Comex/LBMA refiners cannot keep up with the demand for physical metals.  If prices continue downward and subsequently demand rises, premiums and shortages are likely to continue into the coming months.

 

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

April 14, 2021

Gold and silver remained steady today, trading around $1,735 and $25.45 respectively, as this week’s CPI data showed inflation was much higher than expected in March, and inflation was slightly higher than expected YOY. Stocks were mixed today, in part, due to inflation worries.  The Dow closed in the green, up 54 points as strong bank earnings further helped the argument for value stocks.  The S&P 500 fell 0.4% while the Nasdaq dipped 1% as growth stocks continue to get hit hardest in the reallocation to value sectors due to the rising likelihood of inflation.

April 12, 2021

Today’s 3 and 10-year bond auctions were less than stellar, leading to a rise in yields that helped push metals downward to begin the week.  Demand was substantial enough to keep yields off their 1-year highs, but metals and equities still reacted negatively to even a modest rise.  Gold is down about 0.7%, trading at $1,731, and silver is down 2%, trading at $24.80. Tomorrow’s CPI data for March should give better insight into inflation worries which will likely rattle metals markets one way or another. The Nasdaq closed down 0.36% today while the Dow fell 55 points and the S&P 500 finished flat to remain near last week’s record highs.

April 09, 2021

Gold is down nearly 1% today, currently trading at $1,741.90, after rising to its highest level in over a month yesterday as Treasury yields fell.  Yields have since reversed course and are up modestly with the 10-year ticking back above the 1.65% threshold.  Stocks are poised to end the week comfortably in the green with the Dow up 235 points heading into the final hour of trading.  The S&P and Nasdaq are up 0.60% and 0.35% respectively. For the week, gold and silver are on pace to finish up about 0.5% and 1% respectively.

April 07, 2021

Precious metals and equities both spent most of Wednesday in limbo as investors awaited today’s Fed minutes which ended up being much ado about nothing.  The Fed said basically what everyone expected them to say; things are looking better but there is a still a lot of work.  Gold and silver dipped slightly this afternoon but remain relatively unchanged for the day, trading at $1,737 and $25.20, respectively.  Stocks had one of their least volatile days in months with the Dow eking out a positive session, rising 16 points, and the S&P gaining 0.15%.  The Nasdaq declined, albeit a measly 0.07%, to close virtually flat.

April 05, 2021

Gold and silver remained fairly steady today, dipping slightly on a modest rise in treasury yields and surging equities.  Gold is trading around $1,729, close to where it has remained for the majority of the past two weeks, and silver stabilized around $24.90 after falling to $24.65 earlier today.  Stocks had one of their best days collectively in months as investors had their first full session to react to Friday’s jobs data; 916,000 jobs were created in March, which smashed expectations of 675,000.  The Dow gained 374 points or 1.13% while the S&P and Nasdaq rose 1.44% and 1.67% respectively.

March 31, 2021

Gold is up 1.6% today, currently trading at $1,713.30, after dipping yesterday to its lowest price since June, and silver is up 1.3%, comfortably back above the $24.00 threshold.  Stocks were mixed today but performed well overall.  The Nasdaq gained 1.54% in today’s session as tech stocks outperformed other sectors and the Dow fell 85 points or 0.26%.  The S&P 500 gained 0.36% to close at a new record high and finished the month of March up 4%.

March 29, 2021

Gold and silver are trading at $1,710 and $24.65, dropping 1.4% and 1.8% respectively to begin the week, as the US dollar holds steady near a 4-month high and treasury yields continue to rise with the 10-year hitting 1.7% today.  Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 0.3%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Nasdaq down nearly 1% heading into the last hour of trading.

March 26, 2021

Gold and silver both rose slightly today, closing at $1,732.60 and $25.09; however, ended the week down 0.6% and 4.4% respectively.  The PCE Price Index came in at 0.2% for February, missing estimates of 0.5%, which helped push treasury yields lower as inflation fears seem unwarranted—at least in the short-term future.  Stocks gained on the news, including the Nasdaq which was hit hardest on inflation worries and rising yields, which gained 1.24% today.  The S&P rose 1.66% for its best daily performance in weeks and the Dow jumped 450 points.

March 25, 2021

Gold and silver dropped today as the US dollar continues to rise and is now at its highest level since early November.  Silver dipped to its lowest level since January before stabilizing around $25.15 and gold is down $8.00, trading at $1,727.  Overall, the week is shaping up to be one of the most stable for precious metals after months of volatility that saw metals swinging 5-10% weekly.  After spending most of the day in the red, stocks have since turned positive with the Dow and S&P 500 up about 0.6% each and the Nasdaq up about 0.2%.  The Russell 2000 is outperforming all, up 2.5%, after yesterday’s earnings fueled small-cap selloff.

March 22, 2021

Gold is trading nearly flat around $1,740 today while silver dipped below $26.00 and is currently down $0.50, trading at $25.82.  Stocks finished in the green today as rising COVID cases among the new variants provides investors security that the Fed will continue to intervene to maintain economic security which was seen in today’s treasury yields dropping today.  The Dow gained 100 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose 0.70% and 1.23% respectively.

March 15, 2021

Gold and silver rose today and are currently trading at $1,730 and $26.30 as stocks continued to climb with the S&P 500 and Dow hitting intra-day and closing records today.  The Nasdaq, which had been underperforming the past two weeks as rising Treasury yields hurt growth stocks, outperformed the other indices, and rose over 1% today.  However, the Nasdaq is still about 800 points lower than its record high from February.

March 12, 2021

Gold and silver stalled today as low inflation coupled with rising Treasury yields create a bearish argument for precious metals.  For the week, however, gold and silver ended up 1.7% and 2.7% respectively and physical demand remains high amid supply shortages.  The Dow added 293 points on Friday to reach a new high as rising yields boost the expectation that rates will rise, helping value stocks.  The Nasdaq dropped 0.6% today as tech stocks continue to take the brunt of this shift from growth to value stocks.

March 10, 2021

Gold and silver continued to rise today and are currently trading at $1,724.60 and $26.26, respectively.  The rise comes as today’s CPI data showed inflation is in check, and last week’s worries may have been exaggerated.  Treasury yields reversed course and equities continued yesterday’s rally.  The Dow is currently up nearly 500 points and is on pace to set a new record closing price.  The S&P 500 is up about 0.7% and the Nasdaq is up about 0.15% after dipping into the red earlier.

March 05, 2021

Gold and silver continued their decline Friday,  after February’s employment data came in better than expected, causing the US dollar to jump; 379,000 jobs were created for the month and unemployment fell to 6.2% (vs 200,000 and 6.3% expected).  Stocks, which began the day sharply in the red amid rising treasury yields,  have since turned positive after a tumultuous past 2 weeks.  The S&P 500 and Dow are each up about 1.7% and the Nasdaq, which had been lagging recently, is still comfortably positive, up about 1.4%.

March 04, 2021

Gold dipped below $1,700 today for the first time in 9 months after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation would likely rise in the coming months as the economic re-opening intensifies due to reducing COVID cases and expanded vaccinations. Powell’s emphasis on the temporary nature of this wave of inflation did little to help the bond market, which is currently dropping, sending yields rising to last week’s levels. Equities fell sharply, too, with the Nasdaq down 1.7% and the S&P 500 down about 1%.

March 01, 2021

Gold has stabilized around $1,720 to begin March after falling 6.5% in February, with the bulk of that dip coming in last week’s selloff amid rising treasury yields.  Today, yields fell slightly which, coupled with the approval of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID vaccine, is helping equities gain back some of last week’s losses.  The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are both up over 2.5% today and the Dow is up over 700 points.

February 26, 2021

Gold and silver are both on pace to end the week down about 3.5% as inflation scares continue to intensify, sending treasury yields soaring to a one-year high. The jump in yields suggest investor sentiment on the economy is improving which was seen in yesterday’s underperforming auction of the 7-year T-note.  Stocks are mixed with the Dow, down about 1% and the S&P 500 flat.  The Nasdaq, which was hit hardest this week as growth stocks continue to lose appeal on potential rising rates, is trying to gain back some of its losses, and is up about 1%.  Even with today’s rise, the Nasdaq is still on pace for its worst week since October.

February 24, 2021

Gold and silver plunged today as this week’s stock selloff intensifies on Wall Street and treasury yields continue to rise.  Gold is down $30, trading at $1,766, as it closes in on an eight-month low and silver is down $0.40, trading at $27.47.  Stocks are on pace for their worst day in months as the 10-year yield broke 1.5% for the first time in a year.  The Dow is down over 400 points and the S&P and Nasdaq are down 1.9% and 2.6% respectively.

February 22, 2021

Gold and silver rose significantly today, jumping 1.8% and 3.7% respectively to begin the week amid a weaker US dollar and rising bond yields and inflation scares.  Stocks finished mixed with the Dow Jones gaining 0.09% and the S&P 500 falling 0.77%.  The Nasdaq got hit hardest, falling 2.46%, as investors shift from growth to value stocks as improving economic conditions and COVID data bode well for many underperforming stocks hit the hardest over the past year.  

February 19, 2021

Gold and silver are up $5.50 and $0.22 respectively heading into the final hour of trading as a struggling US dollar continues to provide support to metals. For the week, however, gold is poised to finish about 2.4% in the red while silver, which fluctuated nearly $1.50 over the past 5 days, is set to finish virtually flat. Stocks closed flat for the day too and were mixed for the week with the Dow and Nasdaq finishing slightly up and the S&P 500 dropping for its first weekly loss in a month.

February 17, 2021

Gold is trading at $1,772.50, its lowest price in 3-months as stocks traded lower Wednesday despite strong economic data.  Retail sales jumped 5.3% in January which was far above the expected increase of 1.1%.  Perhaps investors were spooked after bond yields hit a fresh 1-year high yesterday suggesting the economic recovery is farther along than it actually is, which could have contributed to today’s selloff.  The Dow is slightly positive, and the S&P and Nasdaq are down 0.2% and 0.8% respectively.

February 12, 2021

Metals were mixed today with gold finishing down $2.00 and silver jumping $0.40 to finish strong on Friday.  Stocks finished strong too, with all three major indices closing at record highs. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 each finished up about 0.5% and the Dow eked out a win, closing 0.1% in the green.  For the week, gold and silver rose 0.6% and 1.5% respectively as diminishing physical supply and ongoing delays continue to keep premiums high.

February 10, 2021

Gold is up modestly, trading at $1,844, its highest level of the week while silver dipped today and is trading at $27.15, about $0.50 lower than yesterday’s high. Stocks began the day strong, rising to record highs before reversing course and turning negative. Since then, they have risen slightly with the Dow up about 80 points and the S&P and Nasdaq trading virtually flat heading into the final hour.

February 08, 2021

Gold and silver are up $23.00 and $0.65 respectively, hitting their highest levels in nearly a week as physical demand continues to surge amid tightening supply from mints and refiners.  Stocks hit record highs today with the S&P 500 breaking 3900 for the first time and the Dow and Nasdaq each up about 0.5%.  The rise comes as $1,400 stimulus checks are looking more likely in the next few weeks.

January 29, 2021

Metals rose today with silver outperforming gold for the second day in a row.  For the week, silver jumped nearly 6% while gold fell 0.5%.  Equities plunged Friday in what has been a see-saw ride of volatility, rising sharply one day just to fall the next.  Stocks finished the month mixed with Dow and S&P falling 2% and 1% respectively while the Nasdaq rose 1.4% to finish up for its third consecutive month.

January 27, 2021

Equities sunk today after the Fed released its policy statement for the month stating that economic conditions continue to improve even after December’s job report showed a sharp decline in economic growth.  So, after unprecedented intervention from the Fed over the past year, any statement slightly hinting that things are improving and subsequently implying the Fed may scale back its aid is enough to tank stocks.  The Dow is down over 500 points while the Nasdaq was hit hardest, dropping nearly 2.7% today. Gold and silver are trading at $1,840 and $25.25 respectively, dropping modestly but not to the extent of stocks.

January 25, 2021

Gold and silver are trading at $1,854 and $25.40 midday Monday, down slightly to begin the week as stocks drifted negative on diminishing likelihood of stimulus hitting the economy in the near future.  President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion relief package is being met with strong opposition in the Senate and Chuck Schumer said Congress is hoping to have something passed in the next 4-6 weeks—longer than initially anticipated.  The Dow is currently down 110 points, the S&P is trading flat, and the Nasdaq is currently up 14 points, trying to stay positive heading into the last 2 hours of trading.

January 21, 2021

Gold and silver fell in tandem with equities today as COVID cases continue to rise and the effects of holiday travel continue to roll in,  in the form of rising deaths and hospitalizations. The Biden Administration revealed some details of their proposed stimulus package which trumps December’s $900 billion relief bill. Stocks aren’t responding to the likelihood of new stimulus as they have in the past, however, with all major indices trading in the red. Even with today’s drop, gold and silver are looking to close the week up 1.5% and 3.0% respectively.

January 20, 2021

Gold and silver climbed today to their highest levels in nearly two weeks as the US dollar retreated slightly and has remained stagnant over the past month. Equities rose sharply with all major indices closing at record highs. The Nasdaq jumped 2% while the Dow and S&P 500 gained 0.8% and 1.4% respectively. Stocks had their best inauguration day in decades as investors seem ready to put the turmoil of this election behind them and embrace the certainty that came with today’s transfer of power, regardless of political affiliation.

January 15, 2021

Gold and silver dropped significantly today as the US dollar hit its highest level in over a month. Gold, which had spent the most of the week bouncing between $1,840 and $1,850 plunged as low as $1,822 today and silver fell nearly a dollar. For the week, gold and silver fell 1.1% and 2.6% respectively. Stocks didn’t perform much better, falling significantly on underwhelming retails sales for December and President-elect Biden’s proposed stimulus aid that pumps more money into relief checks and unemployment benefits and also proposes a federal minimum wage of $15.  That’s right; equities, which had spent months rising on stimulus hopes, reversed course once something more concrete was presented since it didn’t meet investors’ expectations. For the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both shed 1.5% while the Dow fell 0.9%.

January 13, 2021

Metals are up modestly today with gold and silver trading at $1,855 and $25.50, still well below last weeks highs.  Gold seems to be holding steady right above its 200-day moving average of $1,853 and silver is currently about $0.15 above its 100-day moving average.  Stocks are up slightly across all major indices with the Nasdaq leading the way as tech stocks, which had been underperforming the past few weeks, are once again outperforming other sectors, at least for now.  The Nasdaq is currently up 0.70%, and the S&P 500 and Dow up 0.45% and 0.25% respectively.

January 11, 2021

Metals got a slight bump today as gold once again dipped below its 200-day moving average triggering a new round of buying from investors.  Silver benefited too as it regained the $25 level after last weeks selloff.  The US dollar rose about 0.50% today and equities declined across the board.  The Nasdaq, which had been outperforming the other indices in recent months, got hit hardest, falling 165 points on an intense tech selloff.

January 8, 2021

Gold and silver had one of their worst days in months, plunging over $80 and $2.50 respectively at one point. The dip comes as equities once again closed at record highs, ignoring poor economic data. Nonfarm payroll jobs fell 140,000 in December, the first decline in 8 months (vs. 50,000 gain expected) and unemployment held steady at 6.7%. Due to the Fed’s increasing intervention in markets over the past 10 months and the increased likelihood of stimulus amid an underperforming economy, investors celebrated the abysmal jobs report leading to another record day on Wall Street. Physical metal demand for precious metals remains strong and many investors view today’s decline as a good buying opportunity.  

January 6, 2021

Equities continued yesterday’s rally, un-phased by the events in D.C., and all three major indices closed at record highs today.  The rally comes as markets are beginning to embrace a blue wave in Washington and what that means for future stimulus, which has been a driving force in market trends over the last several months.  Metals were relatively quiet today, holding onto some of their gains while taking a backseat to stocks and Bitcoin—which continues to surge and is now trading near $40,000, more than double its price a month ago and a 35% increase this week.     

January 04, 2021

After hitting record highs today, equities reversed course and fell sharply on surging COVID case numbers and election uncertainty ahead of tomorrow’s Georgia runoff.  Markets love gridlock in Washington and polls are leaning towards a possible 50/50 split Senate,  giving Democrats control with the Vice President’s tiebreaking vote.  Precious metals, which soared earlier with stocks, are still strongly in the green to begin the new year, with gold and silver trading at $1,943.00 and $27.30, their highest levels since early-November and September respectively.  Stocks are on pace for their worst opening day of a new year in decades,  while metals are holding strong amid increasing uncertainty, which shows a divergent from recent months where equities and PMs moved in tandem.

December 30, 2020

Gold and silver climbed today in tandem with equities and are trading at $1,891.60 and $26.53 respectively, their highest levels since jumping Sunday night on positive stimulus news.  Stocks rose sharply this morning as investors eye this new round of stimulus.  Positive vaccine news continues to increase the appeal of equities.  The Dow is currently up 70 points, and the Nasdaq and S&P are up 0.25% and 0.15% respectively, well off their highs today, but still poised to end in the green.

 

December 28, 2020

Gold is relatively flat to begin another shortened week, currently trading at $1,880 while silver is up 2.5% at $26.50, its highest level since December 21. Metals are getting boosted by rising equities which hit intraday record highs today after President Trump signed the $900 billion stimulus bill after threatening not to late last week.  The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are currently up nearly 1% while the Dow is lagging, but still up 200 points or 0.7%.

December 23, 2020

Gold and silver rose today as the $900 billion COVID relief bill passed by Congress earlier this week remains in limbo after President Trump publicly expressed his displeasure with it and hinted at a veto in its current form. Particularly, Trump wants to remove foreign aid from the bill and up the amount of money allocated to stimulus checks. Equities seem un-phased by the possible holdup in new stimulus as this week’s jobless claims fell to 803,000 (85,000 less than expected). The Dow is up 250 points and the Nasdaq, which had been lagging earlier in the day, turned green and is currently up 0.2%.

 

December 18, 2020

Metals and equities declined today as all eyes are on a potential stimulus package which could be approved as early as this afternoon.  It seems unlikely, however, since Congress cannot even approve a budget to avoid a government shutdown 3 months into its fiscal year. Stocks are declining on the diminishing likelihood of more stimulus and bringing metals down as well. Even with today’s decline, though, gold and silver are on pace to end the week up 2.4% and 8.5% respectively.

December 16, 2020

Today’s Fed meeting was not unexpected, but it did rattle markets, at least initially.  Metals and equities dropped after the Fed announced it would leave rates unchanged and continue its strong treasury buyback program to combat the economic effects of the pandemic. Equities rebounded to levels near where they were trading before the Fed’s announcement, while gold and silver surged to much higher levels than before the decision. Stocks finished mix with the Dow down 45 points and the Nasdaq up about 0.50%. Gold is trading at $1,864, its highest level since November 22, and silver is trading at $25.45, its highest level in over a month.

December 14, 2020

Gold and silver slid today, first as equities saw large gains in the morning and then in tandem with equities when they retreated into negative territory.  The Electoral College officially solidified President-elect Biden’s November win and Pfizer’s vaccine became available to select groups in the US today.  Wednesday’s Fed meeting will likely be the most important economic news affecting markets this week, especially given last month’s unexpected decline in employment. Stocks were mixed with the Dow and S&P dropping and the Nasdaq finishing about 0.50% in the green.

December 11, 2020

Gold is currently up $6.00 and is on pace to end the week nearly right where it began at $1,840, while silver is trading at $24.00, down about 1% for the week. Stocks are poised to finish the week in the red after touching record highs on Wednesday before falling Thursday and Friday after stimulus talks stalled in Congress. The Nasdaq and S&P are currently down 0.5% and 0.3% respectively and the Dow is trading flat heading into the final hour of trading.

December 09, 2020

Gold and silver fell $36.40 and $0.75 today, having one of their worst days since prices bottomed out in mid-March.  The drop comes as the US dollar showed some signs of life, gaining traction on modestly rising bond yields and declining equities. The Dow finished down over 100 points, still holding onto its 30,000 level while the Nasdaq dropped nearly 2%.  The S&P fell 29 points after closing above 3700 points yesterday for the first time. 

December 07, 2020

Gold is up 1.4% to begin the week, gaining momentum as stocks retreat from record highs and the US dollar continues to hover around a 2 ½-year low.  Silver is currently up about 2.0%, trading at its highest level in 20 days at $24.65.  Stocks are mixed with the Dow down over 200 points—trying to remain above 30,000, the S&P 500 down 0.30%, and the Nasdaq up 0.40%. A second round of stimulus totaling $908 billion is likely to be passed by Congress shortly.  The majority of the funds are for extended unemployment benefits and small business relief, however, additional details on what the package includes are due out tomorrow.

December 04, 2020

Gold and silver closed at $1,838 and $24.25 to finish the week up 2.7% and 6.9% respectively.  The rise comes as the US dollar continues to decline, finishing down 1.1% for the week. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all closed at record highs today as investors brushed off November’s poor jobs report which came in well below expectations.  Only 245,000 jobs were created last month, falling short of 440,000 forecasted. Unemployment came in as predicted, however, dropping to 6.7%.

December 2, 2020

Precious metals continue their rally this week with gold and silver trading at $1,827.60 and $24.06. Gold and silver are currently up 2.1% and 6.1% respectively since last Friday.  Platinum is having a great week, breaking $1,000 for the first time since February, and is up about 4.5% for the week. Stocks are flat but are still hovering at record highs after having one of their best months in decades in November. Today’s ADP employment report showed 307,000 new private payroll jobs were created in November which is about 130,000 less than median forecasts. 

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