Research & Commentary

July 10, 2020

Gold dipped below $1,800 today as rising equities put pressure on precious metals.  Stocks began the day in the red but turned positive in the late morning on positive corona virus treatments news.  The Dow is currently up 200 points, looking to break a 2-day losing streak,  while the S&P 500 is up 0.35% and the Nasdaq is flat.  

July 08, 2020

Gold and silver jumped today as COVID uncertainty, seemingly, unending central bank intervention, and worsening trade relations between the US and China,  are boosting precious metals’ appeal among investors.  Gold is trading at $1,817, its highest level since 2011 and securely above the $1,800 threshold that seemed to be holding it back last week.  Silver is trading at its highest level since late 2016.  US stocks are still up modestly, even with today’s spike in metals.

July 06, 2020

Stocks rose sharply today after June’s ISM non-manufacturing index jumped from 45.4% in May to 57.1%—its biggest increase on record.  The Dow and S&P are up about 1.4% each,  while the Nasdaq rose 2.2% to a new intra-day record.  Equities were up in Europe and China too,  as economic optimism and ongoing central bank stimulus aid continues to offset pandemic fears, even as case numbers continue to rise.  Gold is currently trading at $1,785, holding strong as COVID uncertainty continues to boost its haven appeal.   

July 1, 2020

Stocks are up slightly to begin Q3 after having their best quarter in decades amid ongoing pandemic recovery. The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 rose 17.8%, 30.6%. and 21.6% respectively between April and July after crashing in late March. Gold is down about 1.2% after reaching its highest level in nearly 9 years yesterday, just under $1,800/oz. Today’s ADP employment report showed 2.37 million private-sector jobs were added in May, falling short of the 3.5 million expectation.

June 29, 2020

Stocks begin the week strong with the Dow up over 500 points on Monday and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each up over 1%.  The rise comes after pending home sales surged 44.3% in May, its largest increase since the data began being tracked in 2001.  Metals are relatively unchanged, with gold and silver trading at $1,775 and $17.95 respectively.   Metals are gaining some safe haven appeal as COVID concerns continue to linger with the three largest US states, California, Texas, and Florida all re-implementing increased restrictions,  as cases continue to spike. 

June 26, 2020

Gold and silver are up $11.00 and $0.10 respectively, trading at $1,773.10 and $17.99.   Stocks are down across the board.  Big banks are leading equities lower after the Fed announced it would cap their dividends and limit buybacks for financial institutions after a stress test showed several vulnerabilities in the current market environment.  Stocks and metals have moved in unison for most of this pandemic but today’s departure from that trend suggests that metals are returning to their traditional role as a hedge against uncertain market conditions. 

June 24, 2020

Stocks are down across the board as corona virus cases continue to rise and more states are seeing record spikes; 34,700 new cases were reported yesterday nationwide, the third highest daily total since this pandemic began.  The IMF cut its global growth forecast today, predicting the global economy will shrink by 4.9%.  Gold and silver are down 0.4% and 2.3% respectively.

June 22, 2020

Gold is trading at $1,757, its highest price in over a month, as 29 states are now reporting spikes in cases, fueling concerns about the economic impact of a second wave.  Equities were mixed most of the morning as investors weighed the significance of increasing case numbers but have since turned modestly green with the Dow up 100 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.56% and 0.89% respectively.

June 19, 2020

Gold is trading at $1,745, its highest price in 3 weeks as more states are seeing spikes in corona virus cases since reopening.  Stocks began the day up, looking to snap a two-day losing streak,  but have since turned negative after Apple announced it would close some stores in 4 states in response to rising COVID cases.  Gold and silver are up $22.00 and $0.32 respectively, set to end the week up over 1% each.

June 17, 2020

Stocks closed lower today,  to snap a 3-day winning streak as several states are seeing upticks in corona virus cases since reopening.  Twenty-one states have seen increases, and 10 of those are experiencing their highest levels since the pandemic began, sparking concerns of the economic impact of a second wave.  Gold is holding strong amid the economic uncertainty, currently trading at $1,731.

June 16, 2020

Stocks surged today as retail sales more than doubled expectations, rising 17.7% in May (versus 8.5% expected).  Many investors believe this sudden rise in sales shows how temporary the COVID recession was and that the worst is over.  The three major indices are all up,  over 2% midday on the news.  Gold and silver are also up, trading at $1,730 and $17.60 respectively.

June 12, 2020

Stocks are up across the board, recovering some losses suffered yesterday after Wall Street had its worst day since March 16 amid growing fear that a second wave of COVID-19 could impede lasting economic recovery.  The Dow is up about 300 points or 1.2% and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up about 0.70% each.  Gold is holding steady around $1,735, poised to end the week up about 3% while silver is trading at $17.50, down over $0.75 from its weekly high. 

June 10, 2020

Gold and silver jumped in early trading as stock futures sunk ahead of today’s FOMC statement.  They have since recoiled to yesterday’s levels, trading at $1,714 and $17.73 respectively.  Stocks are mixed as investors wait for more guidance from the Fed.  The Dow and S&P 500 are both down slightly, but the Nasdaq continues its recent tear, rising above 10,000 again after breaking that threshold yesterday for the first time ever.  No change in QE or monetary policy is expected today, however, Fed guidance for future actions could rattle markets.

June 08, 2020

Gold is up $22.00 to begin the week, trading right around $1700, recovering some of its losses brought about after last week’s shocking jobs report which caused equities to surge on Friday.  Stocks are up modestly, with the Dow rising about 1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each up about 0.6%.  This comes as the National Bureau of Economic Research said today,  that the US is officially in a recession because of the COVID pandemic which ended the longest period of economic expansion on record, spanning from June 2009 to February 2020.

June 05, 2020

Gold is trading at $1,677, its lowest level in six weeks after unemployment data released today was surprisingly good, attracting investors away from save haven assets and back to equities.  In May, 2.5 million jobs were added, and unemployment dropped to 13.3% (-7.25 million and 19% expected). Stocks are surging on the news with the Dow up nearly 1,000 points, breaking 27,000 for the first time since early March.  The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are up 2.3% and 3.0% respectively.

June 3, 2020

Gold dipped below $1,700 today for the first time in three weeks as growing economic optimism caused by states reopening and better than expected ADP employment data are causing equities to surge.  ADP employment showed a drop of 2.76 million jobs in May, while a decrease of 9 million was expected.  Friday’s employment report will give better insight into the pandemic’s effect on jobs in May. The better than expected data sent stocks booming, hopefully signaling the worst is behind us.  The Dow is up nearly 500 points going into the final hour of trading.

June 01, 2020

Stocks are up slightly despite growing unrest in the US over the murder of George Floyd and increasing tension between the US and China.  This is due to public criticism of China’s handling of the corona virus and their increasing intervention in Hong Kong,  amid ongoing protests.  Today, China halted purchases of several agricultural products from the US such soybeans, pork, and corn, putting the future of 2019’s trade deal in jeopardy.  Gold is trading at $1,735, virtually flat to begin the week.

May 29, 2020

Gold is trading at $1,737, its highest level of the week, as increasing tension between the US and China and disastrous US consumer spending data is attracting investors back to safe haven assets like metals.  Personal income surged 10.5% as stimulus aid entered the economy, however, consumer spending fell 13.6%, as more Americans are deciding to save their money. The shift in consumer spending does not bode well for a swift economic recovery as people may look to pad their savings instead of investing right away.  

May 27, 2020

Gold dipped below $1,700 for the first time in over two weeks early this morning,  as stock futures signaled another good day for Wall Street after a strong performance yesterday.  Gold has since rebounded and is trading at $1,710 on rising tensions between the US and China.  Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced today that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous after increasing Chinese intervention in the region.  Equities are holding their gains too, with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all trading near today’s highs.

May 22, 2020

Stocks are down slightly after mixed economic data leaves investors looking for guidance.  Home sales dropped to a 10-year low and new jobless claims rose by 2.44 million,  which was slightly worse than expected. Manufacturing data released showed a slight improvement in the economy with IHS Markit PMI rising to 36.4.  Likewise, the Philly Fed manufacturing index rose from -56.6 in April to -43.1.  Although less than expected, the rise does signal that April was likely the worst month of this decline.  Gold is trading at $1,720, down nearly 2% so far this week as stocks continue to entice investors amid falling bond yields and hope that the worst of this pandemic is behind us. 

May 18, 2020

Equities are surging today after Jerome Powell pledged additional Fed support to aid in economic recovery and a corona virus vaccine trial,  showed promising results.  All 45 patients involved in Moderna’s clinical trial produced COVID-19 antibodies, sending that company’s stock soaring 25%.  The Dow is currently up 830 points or 3.5%, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq are up 3% and 2.3% respectively.  Gold is down $23 as the positive vaccine and Fed developments are attracting investors back to stocks.

May 15, 2020

Gold broke $1,750 today as retail data came in worse than expected, boosting the appeal of haven assets.  Retails sales fell 16.4% in April, its largest drop on record.  Gold is looking to close the week up nearly 3% and silver is currently up about 8.5% for the week.  Stocks began the day in the red after the weak retail data, but have since turned positive with the Dow up about 100 points.

May 13, 2020

Gold is up $10.00, trading at $1,714.60, after Jerome Powell spoke about the current economic state of the US and called on Congress to provide additional aid to struggling families.  Powell said that the effects of the corona virus could be long lasting, however, emphasized that the Fed is not considering negative interest rates as part of its easing plan.  Stocks are down across the board, with the three major indices in the red about 2%.   

May 11, 2020

Gold dropped $17.00 and is trading at $1,694.70 as the US dollar jumped to a 2-week high today, putting downward pressure on metals. Stocks are mixed across the board with the Nasdaq up about 1%, the Dow down 0.3%, and the S&P trading virtually flat.  This week includes a lot of financial data which could be why stocks seem relatively calm as investors await regional Fed chairs’ analysis, CPI & PPI data, and retails sales.

May 08, 2020

Gold is down $13.20, trading at $1,708.60 as stocks surge in spite of the worst employment data on record.  The Dow is currently up 330 points and the S&P and Nasdaq are each up about 1.3%.  Unemployment soared to 14.7% and 20.5 million people lost their jobs in April.  Optimism on states opening and a collective sentiment among investors that things will quickly improve in the coming months are putting pressure on haven assets like metals.  Despite this, gold and silver are poised to end the week up about 0.5% and 3.5% respectively. 

May 06, 2020

Gold is trading at $1,682, its lowest price in 5 days, as it’s feeling pressure from a rising US dollar and increasing bond yields. Today,  ADP employment showed over 20 million jobs were lost in April as a result of this pandemic, but had little effect on stocks,  which had priced in worse numbers already. Stocks are currently split with the Dow and S&P flat and the Nasdaq is up about 1% as more states are beginning to allow non-essential businesses to reopen.

May 04, 2020

Gold broke $1,700 to begin the week, up $16.00 trading at $1,710, as equities are down modestly.  Updated projections on the duration and death toll that COVID-19 is likely to have on the US, specifically over the next two months, is putting the optimism of investors over the past few weeks into question as stocks pull back.

May 1, 2020

Gold is up $11.00, currently trading at $1,697.20 as equities are getting slammed on weak earnings.  April was the best month for stocks since 1987, but they begin May in a slump with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq down 3.0%, 2.6%, and 3.4% respectively.  Gold is set to close the week out down about 2% but is getting support today as a safe-haven asset amid increased stock volatility.

April 29, 2020

US GDP(Gross Domestic Product) declined 4.8% annualized in the first quarter of 2020,  ending a 6-year run of positive growth.  The decline is likely to get much worse and will likely shatter 2008’s decline of 8.4% when Q2 numbers are released.  The Fed just announced it would keep interest rates near zero indefinitely to help combat the financial effects of this pandemic. Gold remains relatively unscathed by either the decline in GDP or the Fed minutes just released,  and is currently trading at $1705.

April 27, 2020

Stocks begin the week going up as more states are beginning the process of reopening, giving hope that the worst of this pandemic is behind us.  Oil collapsed again today,  with the WTI June contract plunging 30% as an overabundance of supply with nowhere to put it continues to drive prices down. Gold, which rose sharply earlier today on falling oil prices, has since declined, as economic restrictions are beginning to ease around the world, drawing many investors away from haven assets.

April 24, 2020

Gold is poised to end the week up over 2.5% as collapsing oil prices pulled equities down most of the week while boosting safe-haven assets like metals. However, stabilizing oil prices Friday helped stocks close in the green while gold and silver both pulled back from their recent highs. Unemployment data released today showed 4.3 million new claims this, bringing the total to over 26 million since the virus outbreak.

April 22, 2020

Gold and silver are up $47.70 and $0.32 after the Senate gave the “OK” for an additional $500 billion in stimulus aid primarily for small businesses, which the House is expected to approve today.  The rise comes as ongoing stimulus aid increases concerns about inflation down the road.  Stocks are also up across the board on the aid package news and some signs that the oil market is stabilizing.  However, both WTI and Brent remain well below profitable levels at $11 and $20 a barrel respectively.

April, 20, 2020

Oil prices collapsed today as a global decrease in energy consumption coupled with an overwhelming supply with no storage available,  caused the May contract to turn negative for the first time ever as traders scramble to avoid taking delivery.  Stocks are getting pulled down by the oil situations with the Dow down 560 points going into the last hour of trading.  Gold and silver are up modestly, trading at $1,700 and $15.50 respectively.

April 15, 2020

Retail data released today showed an 8.7% decline in US consumer spending—its largest monthly decline on record.  Grocery spending, however, surged 27% as the virus continues to halt non-essential businesses.  While not unexpected, the extent of the decline was enough to rattle investors, sending the Dow and S&P falling about 2%.  Gold is down $27.20 but is still trading well above $1,700 and is still up about 6% for the month.  

April 13, 2020

Gold is up $18.50 today, breaking its recent record set in early March, and is trading at its highest level since late 2012.  Equities are struggling to continue last week’s surge, with major indices down across the board. Gold’s recent rise can be attributed, in part, to ongoing inflation concerns as central banks pump unprecedented stimulus aid into economies to help combat corona virus effects.

April 08, 2020

Stocks continue to climb on hopes that the worst of this global pandemic is behind us with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all up over 2% midday.  Gold is currently up $2.50, trading at $1,665 while silver has declined and is trying to stay above the $15 threshold.  Premiums remain high on physical metals as supply concerns still linger, even as large refiners begin to reopen around the world.

April 06, 2020

Gold is up nearly $50 today, trading at a 3-week high as central bank easing measures around the world help boost the metal’s appeal against inflation. Equities are surging on news that Covid-19’s rate of spread is beginning to decline in major hot spots globally, illustrating some light at the end of the tunnel.  The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P are all up about 5.6% to begin the shortened trading week.

April 03, 2020

Today’s jobs report helped shed light on the toll COVID-19 is having on the US economy as 701,000 jobs were lost in March and unemployment jumped from 3.5% in February to 4.4%.  It was the first negative month for payrolls in a decade, and what’s worse is these numbers will likely be revised upward as more data comes in.  Stocks began the day modestly in the green but have since retreated, down about 2%.  Gold is currently up $6.50, trading at $1,636.50, up about 2.5% from its weekly low.

April 01, 2020

US stocks continue their decline this week as ADP Employment Data showed a drop of 27,000 jobs and ISM manufacturing index fell to 49.1%– its lowest level since 2009.  Both outperformed expectations, however, much of the survey data was from the first half of March, before Covid-19 had fully affected the economy to the point it has now.  Friday’s jobs data and April manufacturing data will likely provide better insight to the scope of impact this virus has had on the US economy.