Monthly Summary

October 2020

Metals saw continued volatility during October, rising and falling in economic and political events leading up to next month’s election. Ultimately, they ended the month in a similar position to where they started; gold finished down 0.50% while silver gained 0.70% in October. PGMs fared worse with platinum and palladium falling 6.2% and 4.7% respectively.

Gold began the month strong as September’s jobs data missed expectations and President Trump’s COVID diagnosis boosted their haven appeal as equities slid on Friday, October 2.  Stocks recovered the following week as President Trump was released from the hospital and surging case numbers made a second round of stimulus more likely.  In fact, markets spent much of October analyzing stimulus developments between Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, and House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi.  During this time, new cases were rising sharply which seemed to boost equities as investors believed that would further cement a second round of aid.  Precious metals and equities were whipsawed most of the month, rising in tandem one day and trading inversely the next as investors analyzed new developments in stimulus prospect, the upcoming election, and rising coronavirus case numbers.

Once the last week of the month rolled around (Oct 26-30), and it was clear no new stimulus would pass Congress before the election, stocks crashed, making October the worst month for equities since March.  The Dow fell 6.5% this week to close the month down 4.6%; the Nasdaq shed 5.5% for the week to close October down 2.3%, and the S&P 500 dipped 5.6% to finish 2.8% in the red for the month.

Overall, precious metals outperformed stocks in October and their demand remains strong as inventory levels continue to stabilize.  Equities relied too heavily on a second round of stimulus that never arrived, leading to a massive selloff at the end of the month.  With COVID cases rising globally and ongoing election uncertainty that will likely last much longer than usual, gold and silver remain attractive to investors heading into November. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

November 25, 2020

On Tuesday, gold fell for the second day after its $1,835.70 open,  to as low of $1,797.10 before recovering somewhat to close at $1,804.60.

Continued optimism on the Covid-19 vaccines and a clearer picture on the finality of the US election fueled lower demand for gold’s “Safe Haven” allure.

Wednesday’s opening and holding above $1,800, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday should firm further support at that level.

November 20, 2020

Gold and silver rebounded today and are up $11.40 and $0.30 respectively, currently trading at $1,872 and $24.34.  Stocks are mixed with the Dow and S&P 500 down somewhat and the Nasdaq slightly positive, trying to eke out a positive session.  For the week, stocks are on pace to close in the red, as positive vaccine data was quickly offset by rising COVID levels and new restrictions across several states to curb the rise.  Yesterday, the US hit a record high of more than 187,000 cases. Heading into the busiest travel week of the year, many worry the already record numbers will surge, leading to significant economic repercussions in the coming weeks.

November 16, 2020

Equities rose sharply today in response to more promising vaccine data, this time regarding Moderna’s latest round of trials, which showed an efficacy of 94.5% in preventing COVID transmission.  The Dow is up 330 points heading into the last hour of trading and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up 0.75% and 0.50% respectively.  Gold and silver rallied overnight, but have since retreated to the levels they closed at last week, trading at $1,885 and $24.75.

November 13, 2020

Gold and silver are trading at their highest levels since Monday, when metals plunged in response to Pfizer’s vaccine news.  The steady price increase this week can be attributed to record level COVID cases this week and talks of a new wave of lockdowns in hotspots throughout the US.  Stocks are up across the board with the Dow and S&P up about 1.2% and the Nasdaq up 0.9% heading into the final half hour of trading.  The Dow is on pace to close up 3% for the week after Monday’s vaccine related spike.

November 09, 2020

Stocks are soaring today on news that Pfizer’s vaccine showed an efficacy rate of more than 90% in their phase 3 trial.  Gold and silver plunged on the news as it detracted from their recent safe-haven appeal given all the political and economic uncertainty.  The Dow is leading stocks and is currently up 1340 points or 4.7%.  The Nasdaq, which outperformed other indices in previous months due to its tech/work-from-home stocks, is almost flat, up just about 0.1%.  All three indices hit record highs this morning but have since declined, but still on pace for one of their best days in months.

 

November 06, 2020

Gold and silver are trading at their highest levels in nearly 7-weeks as stocks slipped today and are trading relatively flat after surging the past two days.  A Biden victory is becoming more likely as he pulled ahead in Pennsylvania and Georgia this morning and still maintains his lead in Nevada and Arizona.  Republicans maintained control of the Senate and Democrats maintained control of the House, although they gave up some seats this week.  Gold is trading at $1,951 and silver is up $0.50, trading at $25.67.

November 04, 2020

Stocks soared today even as last night’s election results remain undecided, which was to be expected.  The Dow closed up 367 points or 1.34%.  The Nasdaq, which had futures halted briefly last night after jumping too quickly, finished up 3.85% and the S&P 500 rose 2.20%.  All focus is on key swing states, primarily Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, as updated counts continue to roll in.  Metals initially dipped as stocks surged today, but have since recovered some of their losses with gold and silver trading at $1,904 and $24 respectively.

November 02, 2020

Stocks are mixed Monday afternoon heading into what is shaping up to be a very volatile week for markets; currently, the Dow is up about 1% and the Nasdaq is down 0.4%.  The results of tomorrow’s election will likely remain in limbo for days, if not weeks, which only adds to existing uncertainty among investors as COVID cases continue to climb globally and several European countries are reinstating shutdowns to curb the rise.  Gold and silver are up about 0.8% and 1.7% respectively, but tomorrow’s election, Thursday’s Fed announcement, and Friday’s employment data are only a few components of a busy economic week which could cause massive price fluctuations across markets.   

October 28, 2020

Equities continue to get slammed as this week’s selloff intensified today amid growing concern about the rate of coronavirus resurgence. The Dow fell 943 points Wednesday, bringing its 3-day losses to 1815 points. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq performed even worse, falling 3.5% and 3.7% respectively. Gold and silver were hit hard too with gold falling to its lowest price in over a month silver dropping to its lowest level since October 6.

October 26, 2020

Stocks had their worst day in nearly two months as the US hit a record number of daily new COVID cases over the weekend and hopes of stimulus aid are dwindling as next week’s election nears. The US saw over 83,000 new cases on Friday and Saturday, the highest daily number since the pandemic began in March. Globally, cases are also rising in Europe and Asia. Gold held firm around $1,900, breaking away from its tendency to move in tandem with equities over the past several months. The Dow shed 650 points to finish at its lowest level in 3-weeks and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped 1.64% and 1.86% respectively.

October 21, 2020

Stocks closed in the red for a third consecutive day as investors continue to eye the likelihood of a new round of stimulus before the election which is now less than 2-weeks away. Nancy Pelosi and Steve Mnuchin are scheduled to talk again tomorrow, and that call will likely provide a definitive answer to whether or not the US can expect additional aid before November 3. Gold and silver rose today on the uncertainty and are currently trading at $1,923 and $25.13 respectively.

October 19, 2020

US stocks are on pace for their worst performance in 2-weeks as equities plunged in reaction to more news of a stalemate between Congressional Dems and the White House regarding pre-election stimulus aid. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both down about 1.5% heading into the last half hour of trading and the Dow is down 400 points. Gold rose as high as $1916 today as the US dollar weakened, but has since retreated to the $1900 level.

October 14, 2020

Gold broke $1,900 again as sliding equities helped boost metals’ appeal heading into what will likely be a turbulent fourth quarter as the election nears and stimulus aid remains uncertain.  Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin stated today,  that a new round of stimulus would be difficult to pass prior to the election.  This comes as both Eli Lilly and Johnson & Johnson suspended COVID treatment trials this past week putting the timeline of an effective vaccine in question.

October 12, 2020

Gold and silver have stabilized around $1,922 and $25.20, down modestly from their session highs of $1,934 and $25.65 as strong equity gains are putting downward pressure on metals. Decreasing chances of a new stimulus package and increasing COVID cases in the US are having little effect on stocks, which are up across the board.  The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are up 1%,2%, and 3% respectively heading into the final hour of trading.

October 09, 2020

Gold and silver surged today to their highest levels since September 21, 2020,  as the US dollar continues to slip and the rising likelihood of a second stimulus package boosts the case for precious metals in the long term.  Gold is currently up about 3.1% for the week while silver passed the $25 level and is looking to close up over 8%.  Stocks are also up across the board and looking to close the week up almost 3% on renewed stimulus talks.

October 07, 2020

Yesterday, gold and silver declined sharply with equities after President Trump unexpectedly announced he was tabling new stimulus aid until after the election.  President Trump later reversed course, calling on new stimulus checks, increased unemployment benefits and airline aid,  specifically causing stocks to soar back to previous levels in the aftermarket. Stocks continued to climb Wednesday, and the Dow is poised to close about 550 points in the green while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up about 1.8%.  Gold and silver rebounded some,  but still remain well under their Monday levels of $1,900 and $24 respectively.

October 05, 2020

Gold and silver rose to their highest prices in 2-weeks, currently trading at $1,915 and $24.50 respectively,  as the US dollar slipped to a 2-week low Monday.  Stocks are up significantly to begin the week, gaining momentum as President Trump’s condition appears to be improving and is scheduled to be released from Walter Reed this evening.  The Nasdaq is leading the pack, up about 2% going into the final hour of trading, and the S&P500 and Dow are both up about 1.5%.  The spike comes after equities plunged on Friday after news that the president was being admitted to the hospital because of his COVID diagnosis.

October 02, 2020

Gold and silver are teetering around $1,900 and $24 respectively, rising modestly on a worse than expected September jobs report.  In what is the last jobs report before the presidential election, nonfarm employment rose by 661,000 and unemployment dropped to 7.9% (vs 800,000 and 8.2 expected).  Stock futures plunged overnight on the news that President Trump and the First Lady both contracted COVID-19 but have since recovered some of their losses.  The Dow is virtually flat but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 1.9% and 0.6%.

September 30, 2020

Gold ticked above $1,900 today for the first time since September 22, 2020, but has since declined and is currently trading at $1,887 on positive housing data.  Silver is down nearly a $1.00, trading at $23.50.  Stocks rose today on renewed stimulus hope as House Dems and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said a new bill could be approved by Thursday that would include a new round of stimulus checks and increased unemployment benefits.  Stock and metal prices diverged over the past two days with gold and silver rising Tuesday as equities fell and the opposite happening today.

September 28, 2020

Gold and silver are trading at $1,877 and $23.55, their highest prices since last Wednesday as the US dollar retreated from a several week high Monday. The dollar dropped about 0.40%, leading to 0.90% increase in the price of gold, and a 2.3% rise in silver.  Stocks are up sharply to begin the week, looking to snap a 4-week losing streak, as a potential new stimulus bill is looking more likely amid ongoing pandemic concerns.  The Dow is currently up over 500 points, and the S&P and Nasdaq are up 1.8% and 1.6% respectively.

September 23, 2020

Gold and silver continued downward on Wednesday, falling 2.2% and 6.7% respectively to their lowest levels since July 21.  The drop comes as equities are getting crushed as well.  The Dow and S&P 500 closed 1.92% and 2.37% in the red today and the Nasdaq was hardest hit, falling over 3%.  The US dollar continues to rise, hitting its highest level since mid-July.

September 21, 2020

Gold and silver plunged to their lowest levels since July on a surging US dollar and a significant equity selloff.  Much of the rise in the dollar and falling stock prices can be attributed to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases throughout Europe, putting several countries at risk for another lockdown. The Dow dropped about 510 points, its worst day in three weeks and the S&P 500 fell 1.2% today.  The Nasdaq outperformed the others, boosted by tech stocks, finished down only 0.1%.

September 16, 2020

Gold and silver initially rose slightly after today’s expected Fed announcement to leave interest rates unchanged but have since dipped and are trading at $1,953.50 and $27.05 respectively.  More important was the Fed’s indication that rates will likely remain near zero through 2023 to help reach their inflation target.  Stocks are mixed on the news with the Dow and S&P in the green and the Nasdaq currently down about 0.40%.  The Fed also renewed its commitment to asset purchases to aid in economic recovery, which should help boost equities, at least in the short term.

September 14, 2020

Gold and silver are both up to begin the week, currently trading at $1,958 and $27.33 respectively,  which are their highest levels since last Wednesday.  The rise comes as the US dollar slipped Monday.  Equities are up across the board on promising COVID-19 vaccine news after AstraZeneca announced this weekend that they will resume trials after halting them over health concerns last week.  The Nasdaq is up 190 points or 1.75% and the Dow and S&P 500 are up 1.0% and 1.1%.

September 4, 2020

Today’s positive jobs report had little effect on markets as yesterday’s selloff continues to hammer stocks.  The US added 1.37 million jobs and unemployment dropped to 8.4% (vs. 1.32 million and 9.8% expected). The Nasdaq is down 3% and on pace for its worst 2-day performance since early March as tech stocks are getting crushed. The S&P and Dow are down 1.7% and 1.3% respectively.  Gold and silver are trading at $1924 and $26.60 down 3.3% and 8.0% from their weekly highs reached on September 1. September is historically the worst month for stocks, and even though March will likely be the worst for 2020, markets are trying to stick to tradition based on the last week.

September 2, 2020

Gold and silver both slipped today as a strengthening US dollar and record equity prices continued to put downward pressure on metals. Gold saw over a $50 swing from yesterday’s high and today’s low and silver dropped more than a $1.50 in the last 24 hours. Both metals are up slightly on the reopen, trading at $1940 and $27.42 respectively. Today’s ADP employment data came in far worse than expected but investors seem to be shrugging it off. Friday’s job report should be a better indicator of US recovery and will likely rattle what are already considered extremely volatile markets.

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