Monthly Commentary

May 2019

Gold had its best monthly performance since January, rising over 2.0% due to increasing trade fears and plunging stocks, particularly at the end of the month.  Silver, which started to gain momentum the last week of May, could not regain its earlier losses and finished the month down 0.60%.  Platinum and palladium finished down 11.1% and 1.8% respectively.

Precious metals spent the month stuck in the middle of a volatile tug of war between a soaring US dollar on one side and increasing trade fears and falling equity prices on the other.  For most of the month, the U.S. dollar was winning; reaching a two-year high while pushing gold and silver to $1,270.00 and $14.37, nearly its lowest for the year.

Relations between the US and China negatively impacted the beginning of May, after talks early in the month produced no agreement and left both Presidents Trump and Xi pessimistic about reaching a solution in the near future.  Furthermore, both countries continued to increase tariffs against the other.  Towards the end of May, President Trump added a new country to the trade war mix by proposing a 5% tariff on all Mexican exports to the US which caused stocks to plunge and gold to spike. On May 31, after already declining the majority of May, the Dow dropped 355 points to finish below 25,000 for the first time since January.  The Dow and S&P500 both dropped 6.7% in May, while Nasdaq finished down 8.0% for the month.

Gold soared almost 1.5% on May 31 as plunging stocks and increasing trade tension ultimately beat the U.S. dollar in influencing precious metals.  The escalation of trade fears and falling equities seen in May will make June’s FOMC meeting particularly important.  Many believe that the Fed can no longer outright reject rate cuts while others believe the economy is in good shape and May’s performance isn’t indicative of its current state.  Either way, whether through rate cuts or increasing trade tension and subsequent stock sell-offs, gold is poised to potentially continue its recent success in the coming months.

Historical Trends & Pricing


June 26, 2019

Gold dropped slightly after Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin suggested trade relations with China are improving and a deal looks likely in the near future.  Stocks rose modestly on the news with the Dow and Nasdaq gaining 0.35% and 0.70% respectively.  Even with the slight dip, gold is holding steady around $1,414.00, up over 8% in June, and on course for its best monthly performance in three years.

June 24, 2019

Gold is up $21.50 today, currently trading at $1,417.90 as the US dollar continues to fall and is now sitting at a 3 month low.   The likelihood of an interest rate cut continues to increase amid current trade relations with China and now new sanctions aimed at top Iranian officials.  President Trump and President Xi will meet later this week, which should provide some insight into the direction the  U.S. and China relations are heading.

June 21, 2019

Gold breaks $1,400 for first time in nearly six years!  Gold’s August futures price reached $1415.40 in overnight trading for the first time since September 2013 as oil prices surged due to increasing tension between the US and Iran after Iran shot down a US drone in international space.  Gold has retreated slightly but is holding steady in the $1395 range and is still up over 7% in June as investors continue to digest the Fed’s dovish tone and the increasing likelihood of a rate cut in July.

June 19, 2019

Gold is holding steady in the $1,345.00 range,  ahead of today’s decision on interest rates.  The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but Jerome Powell’s press conference should provide insight into their policy moving forward.  Stocks are up slightly ahead of today’s FOMC announcement, with the Dow gaining 50 points midday. 

June 17, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,341.00, its movement has become much less volatile ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s ensuing press conference that should set the tone for future Fed policy.  U.S. stocks, which have been moving in unison with the price of gold the last few weeks (as both react positively to the likelihood of a rate cut) are up slightly as well, ahead of this week’s meeting.

June 14, 2019

Gold broke $1,350.00 this morning, reaching a 14-month high as weak economic data out of China showed industrial output grew only 5% in May, well below estimates and its lowest level in 17 years.  US retail data released today, showed consumer spending rose in May, and more importantly April’s numbers were adjusted to show much higher spending than originally reported.  While a sign of a healthy economy, stocks are down slightly on the strong retail data since it will most likely be an argument against cutting interest rates in next week’s Fed meeting. 

June 12, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,332.00 after rebounding over $10.00 from yesterday’s low,  brought on by Friday’s trade agreement between the US and Mexico. Tomorrow’s consumer price index should provide a greater sense of current inflation after today’s producer price index suggested it was well contained and could be a factor in determining Fed policy at next week’s meeting. 

June 10, 2019

To begin the week, gold and silver fell as the US and Mexico reached a trade agreement to avoid tariffs.  Stocks are up on the news even though the trade agreement could decrease the likelihood of an interest rate cut,  which was the primary factor driving equities higher  last week. 

June 07, 2019

Gold has settled down around $1,335.00 after posting its best single week performance of the year, rising over 3% since last Thursday.  Friday’s employment data is particularly important amid the Fed’s recent dovish attitude and the increasing likelihood that any negative economic data could influence a rate cut.  

June 05, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,226.00, its highest level since February as comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at possible rate cuts this year.  Stocks also rose sharply with the Dow gaining over 500 points Tuesday, its best single day performance since January. 

June 03, 2019

Gold continues its surge beginning the week currently trading at $1,312.00, its highest level in over two months as proposed tariffs against Mexico and increasing trade tension with China continue to slam equities.  Dow futures are down 140 points after already falling to its lowest level since January on Friday. 

May 31, 2019

Gold rose over 1% today to break the $1,300.00 threshold for the first time in over two weeks.  Stocks continue their sell-off amid heightening tension between the US and China and now,  new threats of tariffs against Mexico. The US is threatening a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods in response to Mexico’s lax immigration enforcement and the Dow and Nasdaq are down 230 points and 70 points respectively midday on the news. 

May 29, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,283.50 (up $6.00) as bond yields continue to fall causing growing concerns about the state of the economy.  Mounting tension between the US and China also gave support to gold with President Xi not backing down to limiting and taxing exports for the U.S.  Stocks plunged on new trade concerns with the Dow opening 200 points in the red this morning.

May 24, 2019

Gold rose nearly 1% Thursday,  its highest level in over a week as the U.S. dollar dipped and stocks plunged due to increasing concerns that US-Sino relations are worsening,  and neither President Trump or Xi seem too eager to reach a resolution.  April’s durable and capital goods data due out this morning should provide better insight into the current state of the U.S. economy. 

May 22, 2019

Gold remains in the $1,275.00 range as the US dollar index (DXY) seems to have plateaued around 98 after gaining .50% this week.  Stock futures are down this morning as investors await the release of the most recent FOMC minutes where interest rates were left unchanged.  The minutes should provide greater insight into the Fed’s current economic outlook and what that means for future interest rates.

May 20, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,276.00 to begin the week after falling Friday as the US dollar neared its 2019 high and US equities surged on positive earnings data. Silver was hit harder falling to its lowest level of 2019, creating a buying opportunity for investors worried about how long US equities can continue their positive run. 

May 17, 2019

Gold has stabilized around $1,285.00 after dipping Thursday,  as positive housing data and a surging US dollar kept downward pressure on precious metals and helped quell investors’ trade war fears.  US stocks also rose Thursday to post gains in three straight trading sessions but have since dropped in pre-market trading.

May 15, 2019

Gold is trading around $1,295.00 after stocks rebounded today and made up some of their losses from Monday.  Gold surged to its highest level in over a month as trade tensions between the US and China escalated with both countries following through on their threats of tariffs.  Equity futures show stocks are poised to continue rising Wednesday, but gold is holding strong amid the increased trade tension. 

May 10, 2019

Gold is trading relatively flat in after-hours trading after rising $3.80 Thursday to record gains in three of the four last trading sessions.  With the Chinese tariff deadline just hours away and no sign of progress in negotiations, the US dollar has slipped, further bolstering gold.  Stocks dropped again Thursday, a sign of investors’ lack of confidence that the world’s two largest economies will agree to a resolution before the midnight deadline that will raise tariffs on a number of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. 

May 08, 2019

Gold rebounded above $1,285.00 for the first time in a week as tension between the US and China escalated after President Trump promised new tariffs and US warships sailed by the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, clearly as a sign questioning China’s claim to the archipelago. The rising tension with China caused stocks to plunge with the Dow dropping over 470 points Tuesday, its largest single day drop since January 3. 

May 06, 2019

Gold is down slightly, currently trading at $1,278.00, after positive jobs data and the Fed’s dismissal of a potential rate hike curbed investors’ appeal for precious metals last week.  Stock futures are tumbling this morning with the Dow set to open down over 450 points today after President Trump said the US would be raising tariffs from 10% to 25% on $325 billion of Chinese goods.

May 03, 2019

Gold is up $9.70 this morning, breaking the $1,280.00 threshold, as the US dollar retreated after reaching its highest level in nearly two years earlier in the week. US jobs data released today,  shows employers added 263,000 new jobs in April, beating estimates, and unemployment dropped to a 50 year low of 3.6%.


May 01, 2019

Gold dipped slightly and is down $2.30, currently trading at $1,281.50.  Positive earnings on Wall Street continue to boost equities and recent jobs data showed 275,000 private sector jobs were created in April, beating estimates by nearly 100,000.  Silver took a harder hit and is down $0.24, trading at $14.71.

April 29, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,286.00 Sunday night, holding steady after rallying 1.6% last week to post its best five day performance since early January.  A lot of economic data will be released this week including consumer spending, pending home sales, FOMC minutes, and April’s jobs report.  US stock futures are virtually flat going into such a busy week while investors await these data for market guidance.

April 26, 2019

Gold is currently trading around $1,282.00, erasing much of this week’s losses after dropping to its lowest level of 2019 on Tuesday.  Metals are still feeling downward pressure from a surging US GDP which beat 2019 Q1 estimates by nearly one percent, reaffirming the strength of the US economy.  Stocks are poised to bounce back on the positive data after dropping earlier this week. 

April 24, 2019

Gold is trading flat this morning at $1,271.00 after dropping to its lowest level since December 2018, as the US dollar surged to its highest level since May 2017.  Stocks had a good day yesterday, propelling upward by positive earnings data in the tech sector, but trading relatively flat this morning as investors await key earnings data to give markets direction.

April 22, 2019

Gold rose significantly in overnight trading on threats of new global financial tensions after the US said it will end sanction exemptions for all countries that import Iranian oil.  Brent Crude is currently up over 3% even with assurances from the Saudis and other oil producing countries that supply would not be affected.  Gold has since retreated but is still up midday, currently trading at $1,274.00.

April 17, 2019
Gold is trading at $1,273.10, its lowest level of 2019, after a report put out by S&P Global Market Intelligence forecasting record level gold production in 2019, caused the price to plunge. Without adequate demand, the predicted increase in production will cause gold prices to fall as seen yesterday. Silver remained relatively flat as gold fell, dropping the gold to silver ratio to 85.

April 15, 2019
Gold is down $2.90, trading at $1,288.90 today as banks continue to post positive earnings with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs beating estimates today. Better earnings bode well for economic growth in the US and lessen the appeal of safe-haven investments such as gold and silver.

April 12, 2019
Gold is currently up $1.30, trading at $1,290.80, after falling over 1.6% yesterday—its largest single day drop of the month. Gold plunged after jobless claims data showed US citizens filing for unemployment benefits, fell to its lowest level since 1969. Stocks are up today led by positive bank earnings with J.P. Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and PNC beating estimates.

April 10, 2019
Gold is hovering just above $1,300.00 after rising earlier this week, as the US dollar slipped Tuesday. Equity futures remain relatively flat as investors look to key economic data due out Wednesday to give markets guidance. The European Central Bank is set to release its policy decision. FOMC minutes from the Fed’s March meeting will be released, and US consumer price index data will give insight into any inflation concerns. Look for market volatility to increase as investors analyze this slew of important financial data.

April 08, 2019
Gold is up slightly to begin the week, currently hovering around $1,293.00, after dipping Friday due to better than expected employment data. 196,000 jobs were created in March, beating estimates and strengthening confidence in the US economy after February’s lackluster job growth. Gold’s modest rise comes as the US dollar seems to have plateaued after rebounding late last week.

April 3, 2019
Gold declines slightly but holds its range bound level just below $1,300/oz. This is the 4th day in a row as the markets look for some direction. It appears that perhaps Friday’s release of non-farm payroll and unemployment data will be the day we see the markets make a significant move. Forecasts suggest 179,000 jobs created in March with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 3.8%.

April 2, 2019
Precious metals group remains relatively unchanged today following a bearish week. Hovering just below the resistance level of $1,300/oz., Gold found little help from today’s weakening US Dollar or lower than expected retail sales data. All eyes on this week’s array of economic data releases including Friday’s payroll and unemployment data. Following last month’s disappointing payroll numbers, the metals group may find upside direction should another lower than expected jobs report be released.

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