Monthly Commentary

November 2019

Precious metals pulled back in November, losing some of their safe haven appeal amid positive economic data and an increasingly optimistic trade outlook between the US and China. Gold finished down 2.9% and silver dropped 6.4%. PGMs were mixed with platinum declining 3.8% and palladium rising 2.5%.

After the Fed cut interest rates for the third time this year on October 30, precious metals began November on a high note. Gold and silver were trading above $1,500.00 and $18.00 respectively and were looking to push recent highs.  A shift in the Fed’s forward guidance regarding interest rates and positive employment data helped the US dollar gain steam and put significant downward pressure on metals.  By November 8, gold and silver suffered their biggest weekly loss since 2016, falling 3.5% and 7.2% respectively.

Stocks performed exceptionally well in November, having their best month since June. The Nasdaq jumped 4.5% and the Dow and S&P 500 rose 3.7% and 3.4% respectively.  All three of the major averages reached record highs in November, driven higher by positive economic data, primarily durable goods orders and an upward revision in Q3 GDP.

Gold spent most of the second half of November oscillating between $1,450.00 and $1,470.00, gaining ground one day as trade tensions rose only to drop the next as trade conditions improved. Ultimately, positive economic data and an overall improvement in relations between the US and China proved to be too much for gold and silver to maintain their recent gains.

Historical Trends & Pricing

Commentaries

December 11, 2019

Gold and silver are both trading at weekly highs, currently $1,471.30 and $16.82 respectively,  ahead of today’s FOMC meeting conclusion.  Rates are expected to remain unchanged but Fed Chair Powell’s press conference and the Fed’s outlook for 2020 could stir markets a bit.  Palladium is having a record-breaking week and is now trading above $1900.00 as supply concerns out of South Africa continue to push it higher.  The US dollar and stocks are relatively flat heading into this afternoon.

December 09, 2019

Both equities and metals are relatively quiet to begin the week with gold and silver trading flat and stocks down marginally.  This week’s FOMC meeting will provide some insight into future monetary policy but will unlikely shake up markets like they have in the past this year, as the likelihood of an additional rate cut is near zero.  US-China relations will remain in focus as markets digest any new trade revelations ahead of Sunday’s tariff deadline.

December 06, 2019

Gold and silver are currently down 1.1% and 2.5% respectively, on pace for one of their worst days in recent months after the US jobs report shattered expectations.  In November, 266,000 jobs were added (vs. 180,000 expected) and unemployment dropped to 3.5%, a 50-year low (vs. remaining at 3.6% expected).  Equities are surging today after the report was released, with the  Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all up over one percent.

 

 

December 04, 2019

Gold and silver continued their recent surge this morning in early trading after yesterday’s comments from President Trump about delaying a trade deal until after the 2020 election sent metals soaring and equities sliding. Later this morning, however, reports that an initial trade deal may be likely much sooner,  reversed Tuesday’s market moves sending gold and silver falling, currently down $5.10 and $0.33 from yesterday’s settlement prices. Stocks are up significantly on the news, trying to break a three-day losing streak.  The past two days once again illustrated how volatile markets have become as a result of ongoing trade tension.

December 2, 2019

Gold and silver are currently trading at $1,464 and $16.92, down slightly from last week’s highs reached after President Trump signed a bill supporting Hong Kong protestors, further increasing trade tension between the US and China. Equities begin the week in the red as well after weak manufacturing data missed estimates and showed the US is in its fourth consecutive month of contraction. The Nasdaq is currently down 0.90% and the Dow and S&P 500 are each down around 0.60%. 

November 27, 2019

Stocks are up across the board and on pace for their best month since June after unexpected positive economic data helped fuel the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow to new records.  Durable goods orders came in at 0.6% (vs. -0.9% expected) and weekly jobless claims were 213,000 (vs. 221,000 expected).  Q3 GDP was also revised upward to 2.1%.  Gold and silver are down as safe haven assets are losing some appeal to equities on this data.

November 25, 2019

Gold and silver continue their downward trend as equities begin a shortened trading week up across the board.  Gold is currently trading at a two-week low as the US and China appear to be heading in the right direction towards some form of a resolution. China announced it will enact tougher penalties against IP violations, which is an aspect that had been somewhat overlooked in initial trade negotiations.  The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each hit new record highs today with the Dow not far behind, currently up 138 points.

November 22, 2019

Gold is down slightly after a relatively involatile week for markets as equities are trying to snap a three-day losing streak.  Trade war uncertainty continues to weigh on investors as relations between the US and China are seemingly becoming more unpredictable.  The OECD warned yesterday that global GDP will likely drop to 2.9% for 2019 and remain stagnant for the next few years, contributing much of the decline to the US and China.

November 20, 2019

Gold and silver dipped earlier but have since rebounded on increased trade tension between the US and China.  Concern that phase one of a trade deal will not be completed in 2019 coupled with China’s response to the US Senate unanimously passing a bill supporting Hong Kong protesters suggests that relations are deteriorating.  Equities dropped significantly on the news, with the Dow and S&P 500 both down about 0.90%.

November 18, 2019

Gold and silver are up slightly to begin the week as the WTO warned today that global trade is likely to remain sluggish in Q4, fueled by rising tariffs and increasing uncertainty between the US and China.  Investors continue to receive mixed signals regarding the progress of a trade deal which has equities trading virtually flat. 

November 15, 2019

Gold retreated today after gaining ground yesterday on renewed trade uncertainty between the US and China.  The drop comes as a trade deal is looking more likely, however, we’ve seen how quickly sentiment can shift and its effect on markets regarding trade relations between the US and China.  US equities are up on trade hopes and positive retail data which bodes well going into the holiday season.

November 13, 2019

Gold is currently up $8.50, holding on to most of its gains even as Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony appears optimistic and further rate cuts are becoming less likely barring an improbable shift in economic conditions. Equities, which started the day in the red, have since turned positive and on Powell’s testimony.

November 08, 2019

Gold and silver are on pace for their biggest weekly drop since 2016, falling 3.5% and 7.2% respectively to three-month lows.  The drop comes as equities continued to soar yesterday hitting record highs in each of the three major US indices.  Even after conflicting reports out of the White House regarding rolling back future tariffs, the relationship between the US and China is seemingly improving, putting downward pressure on metals which have thrived over the past several months due to trade uncertainty.   

November 06, 2019

Gold is currently up $10.00, trading at $1,492.00,  after falling yesterday as the US dollar rose to a three-week high.  The rise in metals comes as weak earnings and news that the first phase of a US-China trade deal might be delayed are pushing stocks lower.  Chicago Fed President Charles Evans suggested today that the Fed will not need to cut rates any more in light of strong economic data, further putting downward pressure on markets.

November 04, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,508.00 and silver is hovering around $18.00, both down slightly from last week’s highs as stocks continue their rally.  The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each hit record highs today as better than expected earnings continue to pour in and US-China trade relations seem to be heading in the right direction.

November 01, 2019

Gold and silver are maintaining most of the gains made yesterday after the Fed cut rates on Wednesday even after today’s jobs report came in better than expected.  128,000 jobs were added in October, beating estimates of 85,000.  Stocks are surging on the news with the S&P 500 reaching record levels and the Dow up about 1% midday. Gold and silver are up about 1.6% and 1.9% respectively from their weekly lows.

 

October 30, 2019

Gold is currently trading at $1,495.10, up $6.80, as stocks are slightly lower ahead of today’s interest rate decision from the Fed.  Rates are expected to be cut 25 basis points, and like previous FOMC meetings, Jerome Powell’s press conference on future Fed sentiment will most likely be much more influential to markets than the rate cut itself.  Q3 GDP and ADP employment info both came in better than expected, sending mixed signals on the health of the economy about to receive another rate cut.

October 28, 2019

Stocks continue to climb on strong earnings and news that trade negotiations with China are progressing ahead of schedule.  The S&P 500 hit a record high today and the Dow and Nasdaq are up 0.4% and 1% respectively.  Gold is down on this rally, but with an FOMC rate decision and unemployment data both due out later in the week, it’s anyone’s guess where metals will be trading come Friday. 

October 25, 2019

Precious metals got a boost on Friday amid continuing Brexit drama even as US-China trade relations continue to strengthen.  Gold broke $1,500.00, passing the first barrier to a continued bull run and silver broke $18.00 to reach its highest price in a month.  Continuing positive trade negotiations between the US and China sent stocks climbing today with the Dow currently up 200 points and the S&P 500 coming within half a point of its record close.

October 23, 2019

Gold jumped to its highest level of the week as Brexit uncertainty increases after Parliament rejected PM Boris Johnson’s fast-tracked timetable for a deal.  Johnson threatened snap elections before Christmas if a Brexit deal is further delayed.  Gold is also gaining support from Wall Street too as earnings, particularly in industrials, continue to provide evidence of slowing global growth.

October 21, 2019

Gold dropped to begin the week as US-China relations appear to be moving in the right direction.  The White House suggested today that China could likely avoid December tariffs if negotiations continue to be positive which sent stocks higher.  Gold is currently down $7.30, trading at $1,483.30.

October 16, 2019

Gold is up $8.50 on weak retail sales which dropped .3% in September to snap a six-month winning streak and missed projections by .6%.  The data shows the effects the trade war is already having on consumers.  After gaining ground on a potential trade deal and strong bank earnings, stocks are flat today as they await more crucial earnings.  Doubts are also rising about China’s commitment to purchasing US agricultural goods which was a significant selling point of the current trade negotiations.

October 14, 2019

Gold and silver are both up modestly to begin the week as investors may have overreacted to Friday’s  trade deal progress between the US and China. Both sides remain weary and have stated that a lot still needs to be done to reach a meaningful trade agreement.  Stocks begin the week virtually flat after having their best single day in over a month of Friday.

October 11, 2019

Equities are soaring today on renewed trade hopes as reports indicate a partial deal between the US and China may be finalized shortly.  The Dow is currently up 470 points, on track for its best day in a month.  Gold is down .80% to its lowest price of the week on the news. 

October 09, 2019

FOMC minutes released today showed the Fed became more worried about the state of the economy, citing an increasing likelihood of a recession and softening labor market as two central concerns.  The minutes also showed that Fed officials were not unified in their decision to cut interest rates in September, illustrating the disconnect between market expectations and Fed policy that will likely continue in the absence of clear forward guidance. Gold and silver are holding onto their recent gains, trading at $1,508.00 and $17.77 respectively.  Stocks are also up on renewed trade optimism as talks continue in DC.

October 07, 2019

Markets are relatively quiet to begin the week as investors turn their eyes to DC for the next round of US-China trade talks.  The outcome of these negotiations will likely greatly impact markets since $300 billion in China tariffs are set to take effect next Tuesday if a deal isn’t reached.   Fed minutes and key inflation data are also due out later in the week.  Gold is down slightly ahead of such a busy week, currently trading at $1,499.00 and equities are virtually flat.

October 04, 2019

Equities got a much-needed boost on today’s job report.  September’s jobs growth fell short of expectations, but August and July’s numbers were revised up for a combined 45,000 additional jobs.  More importantly, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, a 50-year low.  The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are all up nearly 1%.  Gold and silver are still well above their Tuesday lows, and on pace to end the week in the green. 

October 02, 2019

Gold is hovering around $1,500.00, up 2.2% in the past two days, as troublesome economic data continues to pound US equities.  Yesterday, the ISM Manufacturing Index dropped to its lowest level in a decade and showed that the manufacturing industry is continuing to decline after August’s data already showed it in contraction.  Today, ADP jobs data missed estimates showing private-sector growth continues to slow.  Stocks continue their selloff with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all down almost 2% midday.

 

September 30, 2019

Gold and silver fell to multi-week lows today as the US dollar continues to climb after reaching its highest level since 2017 as trade tensions between the US and China eased slightly over the weekend.  Last week’s report that the White House was considering banning Chinese companies from US exchanges seems to be unsubstantiated and stocks are responding well to the news with the S&P500 and Dow each up about 0.6%. 

September 26, 2019

After a turbulent trading day yesterday during the events that led to Pelosi’s announcement to launch a formal impeachment inquiry against President Trump, stocks have since rebounded with the Dow Jones up 130 points midday. Gold is dropping sharply as equities continue to rise, currently down $30.00, trading at $1502.70. Much of this drop can be attributed to a natural correction, as gold and silver rose sharply over the past two days without many substantiating reasons.

September 23, 2019

Gold and silver are both up significantly as increasing tension between the US & China and the US & Iran, coupled with weak manufacturing data out of Europe have boosted metals’ safe haven appeal.  Gold is currently up over 1% and silver has soared, up nearly 5% today.

September 20, 2019

Gold is currently up $10.00, rebounding above $1,500.00 as global growth concerns continue to weigh on markets.  The IMF, World Bank, and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) all recently modified their 2019 forecasted global growth downward, citing increasing trade tension between the US and China as the primary cause. Stocks began today in the green but dropped sharply after China announced it had canceled its delegations scheduled to visit US farms. 

September 18, 2019

Gold is up slightly today, currently trading at $1,509.00, as investors await the results of this week’s Fed meeting.  The overwhelming consensus is that the Fed will cut rates 25bps, and like July’s meeting, the Fed’s outlook moving forward will likely be more influential on markets than the rate cut itself.  After snapping an eight session winning streak yesterday, stocks continue to trend downward ahead of today’s decision.

September 16, 2019

Gold and silver both begin the week trading up as geopolitical tension in Saudi Arabia and weak economic data out of China boost metals’ appeal as a safe haven asset.  Terrorists attacked two large Saudi oil fields on Saturday, cutting off over 5% of the world’s oil supply and causing oil prices to surge once markets reopened.  Economic data released by China today shows that their industrial output is up  4.4% YOY, its lowest level in 17 years.

September 13, 2019

Gold is trading at $1,489.50, its lowest level in over a month, and silver is down 2.7% today on easing trade tensions between the US and China.  The US agreed to delay some tariffs ahead of scheduled trade talks and China has exempted certain US agricultural products from tariffs.  Stocks are up on the news, but only slightly as some investors remain wary of the impact these gestures will actually have on the ongoing trade tension between the two superpowers. 

September 09, 2019

Gold and silver are teetering around $1,500.00 and $18.00 respectively, their lowest levels in nearly two weeks as US equities continue to climb and the US 10-year treasury yield ticked above 1.61%, to its highest level in nearly a month.  Ongoing tension in the UK and Hong Kong, unpredictable trade relations with China, and next week’s Fed meeting could all cause increased volatility in trading over the next few weeks.

 

September 6, 2019

After dropping significantly yesterday on renewed trade optimism between the US and China, gold and silver are up slightly based on weaker than expected jobs data.  130,000 jobs were created in August, missing expectations by nearly 30,000.  Stocks remain unchanged on the news, continuing to climb after yesterday’s rally.

September 4, 2019

Gold and silver both rose sharply yesterday on weak economic data out of the US and ongoing trade tensions.  Gold is currently holding steady around $1,546.00 and silver is trading at $19.36, a three-year high after gaining 6.5% yesterday.  The gold to silver ratio dropped below 80 for the first time in 13 months as silver continues to play catch-up to gold’s recent surge.

August 30, 2019

After a volatile trading day yesterday, gold and silver have firmed up around $1,522.00 and $18.35, down from their recent highs reached earlier in the week.  Even with the drop, gold and silver are poised to have their best month in years, up 8.6% and 14.8% respectively in August.  Stocks are trying to eke out a positive trading session to close the month ahead of the holiday weekend.

August 28, 2019

Gold is hovering around $1,536.00, down slightly from yesterday and silver continues to hold most of its gains made this past week.  Silver is up about 8% from last week’s low as the gold to silver ratio reaches its lowest level since February, right around 84.  Strong earnings are driving stocks higher even as rising trade tensions and an inverted bond yield curve continue to weigh on investors’ minds.

August 26, 2019

Gold climbed as high as $1,555.00 overnight after President Trump announced an increase in Chinese tariffs on Friday after markets closed,  but fell sharply back to the $1,530.00 range as both the US and China seem more willing to work towards a trade agreement now.  US equities are trading up on the news, trying to regain some of last week’s losses. 

 

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